More Franchising Notes

Monday, I thought to look at 2009 Franchising Money compared to the very unscientific pre-season rankings. Today I look at 2008 Franchising Money compared to actual results from that year. I guess the brain is working a little slow this week:

	franching		wins	Power	OP	DP
Hamburglers	$18.2		4	53.93 (12)	37.33 (12)	16.60 (11)
CAPO	$16.2		8	68.88 (7)	46.41 (1)	22.47 (9)
Beavers	$14.9		8	66.79 (10)	42.93 (9)	23.86 (7)
Rednecks	$13.8		5	72.79 (3)	45.86 (3)	26.93 (4)
Ramjets	$11.8		4	68.64 (8)	43.07 (8)	25.57 (5)
Bill	$11.6		9	69.13 (6)	41.60 (10)	27.53 (3)
Drow	$10.2		9	69.69 (5)	46.00 (2)	23.69 (8)
Brawlers	$10.1		4	56.07 (11)	39.67 (11)	16.40 (12)
Hammer	$8.9		9	70.13 (4)	44.69 (5)	25.44 (6)
Old No7	$8.7		9	67.07 (9)	44.93 (4)	22.14 (10)
Mimes	$8.7		9	74.53 (1)	44.60 (6)	29.93 (1)
Flannel	$8.2		9	73.13 (2)	44.47 (7)	28.67 (2)

The most interesting thing here is the success of the people who spent the least in franshising last year. The bottom 4 teams all spent between 8 and 9 million and all picked up 9 wins. Mimes and Flannel led the league in total power rating and defense last year, Old No. 7 had the 4th best offense in 2008, and Witch's Hammer was 4th in total power and won the FLOF Bowl.

On the other end of the spectrum, the top 4 spenders in franchising last year produced two 8-win teams and sent 1 to the playoffs (runner-up CAPO) but also produced a 4-win bottom feeder. Both Hamburglers and Beavers failed to have a power ranking in the top 4 while CAPO had the best offense in FLOF and Rednecks (then Buffalo Bills) were the only team to place top 4 in Power, Offense, and Defense last year without the injured Tom Brady.

Obviously, one year does not make a trend, other then to show that there is likely no correlation between franchising money spent and results the next season.

2008 Pro Bowl

yea, haven't got to that wrap-up of the FLoF Bowl that Haydn suggested I would be doing, but here's a quickie on the pro-bowl voting.

Go here to see the results.

Haydn picked up the Coach of the Year award and DeAngelo Williams garnered MVP honors. But Offensive MVP went jointly to Philip Rivers (4th in MVP voting) and Michael Turner (runner-up in MVP voting). Defensive MVP was much more clear-cut with James Harrison garnering a unanimous Defensive MVP award.

Rednecks had the most 1st team pro-bowlers (3) and Mimes had the most total pro-bowlers (4, all 2nd team). Only two teams failed to send a representative to the pro bowl. Hamburglers and Drow.

Malleus wins the FLoF Bowl!!!!!!!!

I was waiting for Doug to post this because he could probably be more objective, oh well. So, in my second year I managed to win the title against a Capo team that would've scored more points if he hadn't started anyone.

My team didn't have a great day, 54 combined points, but compared to Capo's 15 it did the trick. I would imagine that Capo's -4 offensive points is the lowest total in FLoF Bowl history, which made my victory a little less satisfying.

I'm pretty sure the Rules say that we can start trading again, so you all know I'm game. I'm sure Doug will post a more analytical announcement at some point.

FLOF Bowl 12: Capo v. Malleus

This preview is a week late, but that also means that we have some early returns.

9 Malleus v. 0 Capo (don't believe the score on the scores page)

Malleus has a quick lead after some good results last weekend. Boldin put up 9 for the only offense last week and 3 players in, Malleus already has 20 defensive points.

Capo hasn't had anyone play yet so its not time to panic, but they are down a kicker and wide receiver due to missing the free agent deadline. Of course, Chris confided with me the other day that he was really just upping the post-game smack talk ante. Just imagine how insufferable he'll be if he spots Haydn two players and still wins.

Preview:

A FLOF Bowl win would cap a Cinderella season for Malleus. Haydn took over one of the worst franchises in the league. Lightning had won only 5 games over their last two seasons and had participated in 3 of the 4 Toilet Bowls over their last 4 seasons (going 0-2-1 in those games).

More then 1 year and 1 million trades later, Malleus still did not have a very good team. But they won a game in week 5 that became a 4-game win streak. After a two-week losing streak, they rebounded to win the last 4 games of the season including a season-ending show-down with Bill to win the Middle Division and capture the #2 seed in the playoffs.

Now they have a chance to win a FLOF Bowl in their second season.

Capo entered FLOF only a season earlier in a very different situation, stepping into the owner's chair of the most successful franchise in FLOF history. Capo immediately won their division and the FLOF Bowl.

Dogged by critisizm that he just rode Bishop's coat-tails to his first championship, Chris is back in the FLOF Bowl with a team that looks nothing like the old Deadheads and with a chance to win the flaming football in his own right.

Capo was also a late bloomer this season -- starting 3-3 before going 5-2-1 to close out the season and sneak in as the last wild card.

Capo is coming off of two shoot-out wins. First beating Mimes 34-24 before beating Flannel 44-33. Malleus had a bye in the first round and then scored (probably) the largest game in FLOF playoff history. Malleus' combined 152 points resulted in a final score of 88-0 over Drow.

Malleus and Capo Advance to FLOF Bowl 12

44 Capo @ 33 Flannel
After a regular season where many teams struggled to find offense on a consistent basis, Flannel kicked off a mostly offensive minded playoff round with Peyton Manning's 31. It looked bad for Capo after that but the less noticed 0 pts from Joseph Addai would come back to haunt Flannel. As would pretty much everyone else on offense for Flannel. The rest of the Flannel O added only 15 to Peyton's 31. Neither team played any defense this game so it would be up to the Capo offense to outscore Peyton. Brees led the way with 24, but unlike his opposite number, Bress got solid contributions from the supporting cast. Especially the on-and-off WR duo of Moss and Owens who combined for 19 pts.

0 Drow @ 76 Malleus
Technically this game is not over. However the margin is more likely to get larger then smaller. If Rodgers has a good game, then Drow will have put together a respectible game. But a respectible game was not going to get it done this week because Malleus had exactly one player on his entire team score single digits. Michael Griffin's 25 helped pace a defense that scored 47 (1 less then the defense Drow faces last week). DeAngello William's 32 led an offense that actually isn't done yet and has already scored 94 pts. For all Haydn's talk of wanting to play a game last week, its a good thing he waited.

FLOF Bowl 12: Capo & Malleus
More on this game next week. But my first thought is that this should be the best trash-talking FLOF Bowl ever. Don't diappoint gentlemen. The rest of us need some entertainment while we stew on our losses.

Playoff Preview

Capo @ Flannel
Take 3. Flannel begins their title defense against a familiar opponent. Flannel swept the regular season match-up between two teams who are quickly becoming strong Right Division rivals. In fact, Flannel's victory over Capo in the last game of the regular season established them as the division winner and #1 seed in the playoffs while setting Capo back to the last wild card.

Flannel won the division last year as well and ended up winning the FLOF Bowl. Capo was Right Division champion and FLOF Bowl Champion the year before that (beating Flannel in the playoffs that year). In fact, a Right Division team (but not always the division champ) has won the last 4 FLOF Bowls.

Flannel has not lost a game since week 9 on the strength of a very good defense and a periodically good offense. The offense produced only 19 and 39 points in Flannel's last two games but had consecutive 70+ pt efforts in weeks 10 and 11. Capo's offense has also been very Jekyl and Hyde (although perhaps everyone has the same story this year). They scored 114 on offense in week 12 -- the highest offensive output over the last 2 years. But followed that up with consecutive games of 36 and 34 offensive pts.

Flannel is one of only 3 teams in FLOF history to win multiple FLOF Bowls (Hamburglers and Deadheads are the other 2) and could become only the second franchise to win back-to-back FLOF Bowls were they to win this year. Capo has now made the playoffs in all three of their years in the league.

Drow @ Malleus
Drow got in as the second wild card after just missing out on the Left Division championship. Malleus toppled Bill for the Middle Division championship on the last week of the regular season.

Malleus comes into this game as one of the hotest teams in FLOF -- winning their last 4 regular season games and scoring no fewer then 52 offensive points while doing so. Drow stumbled into the playoffs -- winning only 2 of their last 6 regular season games. More recently Drow have been very hot or cold scoring 87 and 82 in week 13 and in last week's wild card game respectively while scoring only 45 and 57 in weeks 12 and 14.

Both teams have made a flurry of trades in the last couple of weeks to shore up their teams and are positioned to be very active in free agency. In that respect this game may gave started last week as both teams may have been competing for trade and free agent acquisitions.

Malleus is the only team left in the playoffs to have not won a FLOF Bowl yet. Drow have been to the most (3) of any team left in the playoffs but have only won once.

Toilet Bowl: Hamburglers Lose

43 Brawlers @ 8 Hamburglers
Well, Brawlers put an exclamation point on their late season run with a drubbing of Hamburglers in the Toilet Bowl. Matt Cassel powered the Brawler attack, but Colston and the D also came up with good games. Appropriately there is nothing much to point out about Hamburglers' performance in this game other then the obvious lack of results.

Capo and Drow Advance In Playoffs

5 Drow @ 0 Bill
Drow got a solid game on both sides of the ball despite some recent struggles. Thomas Jones (11) had a decent game at RB for Drow but the offensive hero was Steve Smith and his 14 pts. Calvin Pace (16 pts) lead a defense that shut out Bill's Team. But that was more about Bill's offensive issues. No touchdowns and no yardage bonus pts for Bill's offense left the defense to try to eek out the win and the Minnesota DB duo of Griffin and Winfield did their best. They combined for 28 of Bill's 46 defensive pts, but Drow just managed to exceed that total and come away with the win.

Capo 34 @ Mimes 24
Mimes had the best defense of all time during this regular season, averaging just under 30 pts per game. In this game, they scored half that and Gore was unable to play. Philip Rivers' 19 was not enough to catch Capo's offensive balance. Capo got double digit scores from all but one offensive player with Randy Moss contributing 15 to the cause.

2009 FLOF Player Rankings

With the meaningless FLOF Pro-Bowl in mind, and with no games left for some teams, I though I’d give everyone a chance to look at the top ten players in each FLOF position. These are based on my Yahoo shadow league which doesn’t do bonus points so there may be a few differences (also note I’m doing this after the Saints and Bears game on Thursday – so they have one more game than everyone else):

Quarterbacks
1. Drew Brees (NO) – Capo
2. Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Drow
3. Kurt Warner (Ari) – Drow
4. Philip Rivers (SD) – Mimes
5. Jay Cutler (Den) – Malleus
6. Peyton Manning (Ind) – Flannel
7. Donovan McNabb (Phi) – Beavers
8. Eli Manning (NYG) – Ramjets
9. Matt Ryan (Atl) – Hamburglers (PS)
10. Tony Romo (Dal) – Old No. 7

Running Backs
1. DeAngelo Williams (Car) – Malleus
2. Michael Turner (Atl) – Rednecks
3. Thomas Jones (NYJ) – Drow
4. Matt Forte (Chi) – Old No. 7
5. Brian Westbrook (Phi) – Brawlers
6. Adrian Peterson (Min) – Beavers
7. Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – Capo
8. Pierre Thomas (NO) – Free Agent
9. Chris Johnson (Ten) – Bill
10. Steve Slaton (Hou) – Mimes (PS)

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
1. Anquan Boldin (Ari) – Malleus
2. Larry Fitzgerlad (Ari) – Bill
3. Calvin Johnson (Det) – Beavers
4. Greg Jennings (GB) – Mimes
5. Roddy White (Atl) – Drow
6. Terrell Owens (Dal) –Capo
7. Kevin Walter (Hou) – Free Agent
8. Andre Johnson (Hou) – Rednecks
9. Eddie Royal (Den) – Drow
10. Randy Moss (NE) – Capo

Kickers
1. Stephen Gostkowski (NE) – Free Agent
2. Rob Bironas (Ten) – Malleus
3. David Akers (Phi) – Drow
4. Matt Bryant (TB) – Drow
5. Jason Elam (Atl) – Free Agent
6. John Carney (NYG) – Bill
7. Ryan Longwell (Min) – Flannel
8. Rian Lindell (Buf) – Capo
9. Neil Rackers (Ari) – Mimes
10. Robbie Gould (Chi) – Hamburglers

Defensive Front
1. James Harrison (Pit) – Flannel
2. DeMarcus Ware (Dal) – Rednecks
3. Robert Mathis (Ind) – Malleus
4. LaMarr Woodley (Pit) – Capo
5. Lance Briggs (Chi) – Old No. 7
6. Patrick Willis (SF) – Beavers
7. Joey Porter (Mia) – Malleus
8. Julius Peppers (Car) – Mimes
9. Terrell Suggs (Bal) – Hamburlgers
10. Jonathan Vilma (NO) – Free Agent

Defensive Back
1. Quentin Jammer (SD) – Ramjets
2. Josh Wilson (Sea) – Free Agent
3. Charles Tillman (Chi) – Mimes
4. Charles Woodson (GB) – Drow
5. DeAngelo Hall (Was) – Mimes
6. Antoine Winfield (Min) – Bill
7. Cortland Finnegan (Ten) – Capo
8. Chris Gamble (Car) – Capo
9. Troy Polamalu (Pit) – Flannel
10. Corey Webster (NYG) – Mimes

Playoffs Preview! (and the toilet bowl)

Wild Card
Drow (9-5) @ Bill (9-5)
Both of these teams started the season 4-0 only to lose their respective divisions last week head-to-head against the teams that did win their divisions. One big difference is that Bill put up a fight. Drow stumble into the playoffs having scored under 60 pts in three of their last four games. In typical Drow boom-or-bust fashion, they exploded for 87 two weeks ago. Drow have had trouble at running back all season -- having started a league high 6 different runners with newly acquired Thomas Jones likely to be the 7th this weekend. Bill has had equal issues at quarterback. They've started 5 different signal callers this year -- matched only by Hamburglers.

Wild Card
Capo (8-5-1) @ Mimes (9-5)
Mimes are coming off of one of their best games of the season where they crushed to win the Left Division championship. Capo are coming off their worst game of the season where they got handled by Right Division champ Flannel. Mimes' defense has been great all season and they've produced two 40+ pt games in the last four weeks. Capo, on the other hand, has been hurt by an offense that has not been much more like their 34 pts effort from last week then the 114 (yes, that was just the offense) they produced just two weeks before.

Toilet Bowl
Brawlers (4-10) @ Hamburglers (4-10)
These were clearly the two worst teams in FLOF this season. But Brawlers did all of their damage early, losing 9 of their first 10 games before going on a run to win 3 of their last 4. Hamburglers did the reverse. After hanging around with a 2-4 record in their first 6, they promptly lost 6 of their last 8.

Final Season Rankings

OK, here's my final rankings for 2008. Unlike during the season, where I try to create snapshots of who is better right that minute, this ranking will use data from the entire season to see who was better all season long.

Again, these rankings are based on analysis of total game scores. I group the scores into sextiles (kind of like quartiles, but with 6 groups not 4). I use sextiles because 6 divides nicely into the 12 teams we have in the league. This means that in an average week 2 teams will score in each sextile. So if you score in the top sextile you should expect only 1 other team to even be in your neighborhood. Of course, it rarely happens that scores are evenly distributed that week. But over time I think this method does a good job of showing which teams did consitently best and how many games they should have won based on expected distributions of scores.

Now that I'm done trying to convince everyone that these rankings are not the ravings of a lunatic, on with the fun stuff.

1) Mimes (pre draft: 11th, post draft: 8th)
My formulas expected Mimes to win 9.5 games -- they won 9. They led the league with the most game scores in the top sextile and second sextile (4 each). They also were one of only 2 teams to not score in the bottom sextile all season long. And with only 2 scores in the 5th sextile, they had a league low 2 scores combined in the bottom two sextiles. Their 9.5 expected wins is the second highest number in the three years that I've made this estimate (Capo had 10.0 expected wins last year). It also represents an improvement of 3.9 expected wins over last year. This is the second best season-to-season increase since Malleus took over Lightning and improved them by 4.3 expected wins last year.

2) Flannel (pre draft: 4th, post draft: 7th)
Flannel graded out with 9.0 expected wins this year and won 9.5 (I'm counting ties as half of a win). Like Mimes, Flannel scored in the bottom two sextiles only twice. They scored in the top two sextiles 7 times.

3-tie) Buffalo (pre draft: 3rd, post draft: 1st)
This might seem like a surprise since John only won 5 games this season. But my calculations suggest his team should have won more like 7.9 games. Buffalo scored in the top two sextiles 6 times (which is fourth most in the league this year) and only scored in the bottom sextile once. However, he lost one of the games when he scored in the top sextile and did not win a single game when he did not score in one of the top two sextiles.

3-tie) Drow (pre draft: 8th, post draft: 4th)
In an interesting contrast with Buffalo, Drow also have an expected win total of 7.9. Unlike Buffalo they won 9 games. Not surprisingly, their score distribution was similar although even more skewed to the ends of the scale. Drow tied Mimes with a league leading 4 games in the top sextile and tied Flannel for the second most games in the top two sextiles combined (7) but also scored in the bottom sextile 3 times and only Brawlers and Hamburglers scored more games in the bottom two sextiles (Drow had 5, they had 7 and 8). Obviously Drow was luckier then Buffalo. Drow won one game when they scored in the 4th sextile and one game where they scored in the 5th sextile.

5-tie) Old No. 7 (pre draft: 12th, post draft: 12th)
Another Middle Division team that underperformed this year. Old No. 7 should have won more like 7.5 games this year but only won 4.5. No other team this year had more then 4 game scores in the same sextile. Old No. 7 had 6 game scores in the 3rd sextile, or just above the mean. But they obviously could not convert them into wins, going 1-4-1 in those games.

5-tie) Capo (pre draft: 1st, post draft: 3rd)
Capo managed 8.5 wins instead of their 7.5 expected wins. There is no real good way to explain their results as compared to Old N0. 7 other then they were not as unlucky as Old No. 7. They did not score in the bottom sextile all year (7 did it twice) but other then that the whiskey bottle generally outperformed them except where it counts.

7) Ramjets (pre draft: 9th, post draft: 10th)
Given the mid-season hype, I think most people expected to see Ramjets ranked higher then this. But I still have them expected to win 7.4 games this year. They won 4.5. Nothing terribly odd about their score distributions, although it is interestingly similar to Beavers...

8) Beavers (pre draft: 5th, post draft: 6th)
Beavers graded out with an expected win total of 7.3. Their score distribution was very similar to Ramjets, although Roger's team had some better results in the middle and bottom of the scale. Yet Beavers got 8 wins this year. Yet, in a bit of irony, both teams are scheduling tee-times instead of setting playoff rosters.

9) Malleus (pre draft: 10th, post draft: 9th)
Early in the year I commented that Malleus was like the embodyment of the mean. Turns out my formulas agree and expected 7.0 wins from them this year. A couple really interesting things about this revolving around the fact that is exactly how many wins expected out of Malleus last year. Last year, 7.0 expected wins was good enough to get you ranked 6th, this year... 9th. That means 8 out of 12 teams scored mostly above the mean this year, while some of that slack was taken up by our last two teams this year... this is something odd I might look into more later. Also, this year Malleus managed 9 wins while last year he managed only 5.5. This one might correspond to how Malleus was "average" this year as opposed to last year. Last year, Malleus mostly scored around the mean -- 8 of his 14 games scored in the 3rd or 4th sextile. This year, he scored in the middle third only 4 times and scored in the top two and bottom two sextiles more frequently then last year.

10) Bill (pre draft: 7th, post draft: 5th)
Yes, a playoff team this low. But Bill graded out with just 6.8 expected wins. Although note that this really isn't terrible and is also not even close to the worst expected win total for a playoff team in the last 3 years (07 Beavers & Brawlers = 6.8, 06 Drow = 6.3, 06 Flannel = 5.4, 07 Old No. 7 = 5.3, and 06 Old No. 7 = 4.3). Also note that for a team ranked this far down the scale, Bill did score in the top sextile 3 times, which is more then any other team not ranked in the top 4.

11) Brawlers (pre draft: 6th, post draft: 11th)
Brawlers late season surge helped keep them out of the basement at the end of the season. Their expected win total of 4.6 is better then 6 others over the last 3 years. But they were consistently bad. They tied Hamburglers with 4 scores in the bottom sextile and their 7 total scores in the bottom 2 sextiles was only 1 short of Hamburglers. They only scored in the top 3 sextiles 3 times all season.

12) Hamburglers (pre draft: 2nd, post draft: 2nd)
Expected wins for Hamburglers was 3.9. They only scored in the top 3 sextiles twice all year and led the league in any combination of scores you can think of involving the bottom 3 sextiles. Scoring 4 times in each of them.

Week 14: Beavers Miss Out

28 Mimes @ 0 Drow
Mimes win the division with a statement game. Drow limp into the playoffs losing yet another running back in the process.

0 Capo @ 26 Flannel
Flannel also make a statement while capturing their division and the #1 seed in the playoffs to begin their title defense. Capo also back into the playoffs.

42 Malleus @ 26 Bill
The most dramatic game of the week not only gave Malleus the middle division but also the #2 seed in the playoffs. Bill lost his last two games and is now just a wild card.

35 Brawlers @ 25 Beavers
Brawlers play spoiler and knock Beavers from the playoffs. Beavers could have still sneaked in if Bill had beat Malleus. Instead Beavers go into the record books with the best record to not make a FLOF playoff (8-6). Brawlers still go to the Toilet Bowl.

8 Ramjets @ 25 Hamburglers
In a game with little meaning, Hamburglers' win keeps them the host for the Toilet Bowl.

0 Old No. 7 @ 34 Buffalo
The win kept Buffalo from possible involvement in the Toilet Bowl.

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

Assuming Flannel and Buffalo close out their wins. Here are the scenarios depending on what happens with Malleus-Bill tonight.

If Bill wins:

byes will go to
Bill (10-4) as the top seed
Flannel (9-4-1) as the #2

next week:
Mimes (9-5) will host
Beavers (8-6)

Drow (9-5) will host
Capo (8-5-1)

If Malleus wins:

byes will go to
Flannel (9-4-1) as the top seed
Malleus (9-5) as the #2

next week
Mimes (9-5) will host
Capo (8-4-1)

Bill (9-5) will host
Drow (9-5)

Toilet Bowl:
Hamburglers (4-10) will host
Brawlers (4-10)

Week 14: Quickie Predictions

Mimes beat Drow
Really, who knows. Both teams have been very hot and cold. Both teams can play really well. Mimes tend to do it with defense while Drow have a higher offensive ceiling right now. But when Drow suck, they've been really bad lately.

Brawlers beat Beavers
Put Beavers in that really inconsistent category too. If they play to their potential they could crush Brawlers. But Brawlers have actually put it together the last couple weeks and played consistently decent football.

Ramjets beat Hamburglers
'cause, really, everyone beats Hamburglers lately. Even Ramjets may be able to overcome their well documented bad luck this week.

Flannel beat Capo
Other then last week's horrible offensive performance, Flannel have been playing consistently well lately and Capo have been shaky.

Malleus beat Bill
Malleus is really on a roll and Bill's record is finally catching up to his recent mediocre performances.

Old No. 7 beat Buffalo
The only problem here would be if Romo throws the ball to the Steelers too many times or gets killed by James Harrison and can't finish the game, but I think he'll do well enough.

What's it All Mean?

If I'm right, Beavers will be the odd team out. Which pretty much guarantees that I'll be wrong here. The Toilet Bowl will be Hamburglers at Brawlers and the playoffs will be seeded like this:

#1 Flannel
#2 Malleus

#6 Capo @ #3 Mimes
#5 Drow @ #4 Bill

To completly push my preditive skills past their comfort level I'll predict that Malleus beat Mimes to get to their first FLOF Bowl and Flannel beat Drow for a chance at a repeat. If I were still putting out rankings, I'd have Flannel and Malleus 1-2 respectively with a little gap before Mimes at #4 (Old No. 7 would be my #3). Capo, Beavers, Drow, and Bill would be grouped in that order down at 7-10.

Week 13: Quick Recaps

11 Bill @ 24 Old No. 7
Amazing what a difference Romo makes. He teamed up with Forte to beat up Bill. Fitzgerald tried to carry Bill's offense but just couldn't. The loss means Bill has to win (or tie) next week against Malleus to win the Middle Division. The win keeps Old No. 7 out of Toilet Bowl contention.
Old No. 7 grade: B, offense: B, defense: C
Bill grade: C, offense: D, defense: A

21 Buffalo @ 54 Malleus
Don't look now, but Malleus is consistently scoring on offense. Cutler and DeAngelo Williams combined for 50 points and the WRs did really well too. Buffalo did not really have a chance here. The win (and Bill loss) means Malleus gets to play for the Middle Division title next week. The loss means Buffalo could still end up in the Toilet Bowl.
Malleus grade: A, offense: A+, defense: D
Buffalo grade: C-, offense: C-, defense: C

35 Beavers @ 0 Mimes
The Mime offense has been failing more often then not recently. This week, the defense failed to bail them out. Oh, and Beavers went wild on both sides of the ball led by Rob Bironas' 21 pts. This keeps Beavers in the hunt for the Left Division title. Mimes made their path to the Left title a little harder and must now beat Drow next week and hope Beavers lose.
Beaver grade: A, offense: B, defense: A
Mime grade: D, offense: D, defense: C+

34 Drow @ 12 Brawlers
And thus ends Brawlers win streak for the season. Although they did score their third respectable game in a row. Cassel killed them this week and countered a great game from Westbrook. Aaron Rodgers powered the Drow offense and got great support from Darrelle Revis and Charles Woodson. The win (and Mime loss) gave Drow tenuous control of the Left. The loss guaranteed a Brawler Toilet Bowl appearance.
Drow grade: A, offense: B, defense: A
Brawler grade: C-, offense: C, defense: C

0 Hamburglers @ Capo 14
As if Hamburglers' season could get worse, Derek Anderson had a poor game and then gets hurt. Aaron Kampman was the lone double digit player for Ham with 10. It wasn't pretty but Capo got it done. The win keeps Capo in the hunt for the Right Division crown.
Capo grade: C-, offense: D, defense: C+
Hamburgler grade: D, offense: F, defense: C+

0 Flannel @ 0 Ramjets
The dreaded 0-0 tie! Flannel's defense went buck-wild scoring 62 with double digit contributions from all. But the offense scored only 3 points before Jeff Reed kicked in 16. Nowhere near enough to achieve a positive score against Ramjets only normally good defensive effort. With Capo's win, this game really did nothing in the standings other then keep Ramjets out of any Toilet Bowl considerations.
Flannel grade: B, offense: F-, defense: A+
Ramejts grade: C, offense: D, defense: B

Starting Line-ups vs. Optimal: Week 13

1. Beavers: 93 vs. 140; Diff: 47 (won by 36)
2. Flannel: 81 vs. 117; Diff: 36 (Tied)
3. Bill: 67 vs. 98; Diff: 31 (lost by 13)
4. Malleus: 93 vs. 118; Diff: 25 (won by 35)
4. Capo: 62 vs. 87; Diff: 25 (won by 15)
6. Mimes: 54 vs. 78; Diff: 24 (lost by 36)
7. Brawlers: 62 vs. 83; Diff: 21 (lost by 22)
8. Hamburglers: 50 vs. 64; Diff: 14 (lost by 15)
9. Old No. 7: 77 vs. 87; Diff: 10 (won by 13)
10. Ramjets: 65 vs. 74; Diff: 9 (Tied)
11. Rednecks: 63 vs. 70; Diff: 7 (lost by 35)
12. Drow: 87 vs. 92; Diff: 5 (won by 22)

Game changers this week: Joe Flacco 23 (vs. Peyton Manning’s -3) would have erased Flannel’s tie game with Ramjets. Chris Johnson’s 22 (vs. Marion Barber’s 8) would’ve been just enough for Bill to beat Old No. 7. It is interesting that three of the top five point wasters (myself included) won their games, and also that the six of the top seven FLOF teams (all but one playoff bound) are the top point wasters, all except Doug...

Week 13: Playoff Scenarios

Lets skip right to the good stuff.

I am assuming that Drow and Malleus win their games (which seems pretty safe).

Right Division:

• Flannel (8-4-1): Beat Capo earlier in the season so either a win or tie against Capo in the final game will give them the division.
• Capo (8-4-1): Need to beat Flannel in the final game to win the division.

Middle Division:

• Bill (9-4): They fail to clinch the division this week and now must win or tie against Malleus in the season finale to win the division.
• Malleus (8-5): They beat Bill earlier in the year so a win against them in the final game will give them the division.

Left Division:

• Drow (9-4): A win or tie against Mimes gives them the division. A loss means someone else will win the division.
• Beavers (8-5): If Drow lose and Beavers beat Brawlers, they will emerge from the 3-way tie with the division based on a combined 3-1 record against Mimes (2-2) and Drow (1-3).
• Mimes (8-5): Need to beat Drow and have Beavers either lose or tie. Then their 4-3 division record will give them the division over Drow (2-4).

The Bubble:

It does not appear to me that Bill or Drow can miss the playoffs. That said, since every one of the seven teams still in the running for the six playoff spots is within 1 game of each other, I could have missed something. One interesting scenario is that all seven teams could end the season 4 games over .500 (see below).

The three teams in most obvious jeopardy of missing the playoffs are the three 8-5 teams: Beavers, Mimes, and Malleus. Mimes are in the worst situation of those three, if Mimes lose they are going to be out of the playoffs regardless of anything else (lost to Malleus earlier, split with Beavers but would have a worse record against other playoff teams). If Beavers and Malleus lose and Mimes win, Malleus will go home (Beavers beat Malleus earlier this year). Obviously if only one of them lose, that one will miss the playoffs.

If all three of the 8-5 teams win, then the loser of the Capo-Flannel match-up will be the team to miss the playoffs -- no tie-breakers required.

If everyone ends up 4 games over .500 Mimes lose the 4-way head-to-head (1-3) against Bil (2-1), Capo (2-1), and Drow (2-2).

Any way this ends, the team missing the playoffs this year will have the best record of any team to ever miss the playoffs in FLOF's 12 years. The only two other teams to have a winning record and miss the FLOF playoffs were the 7-6 Rednecks in 2001 and the 7-6 Grinch in 1999.

Toilet Bowl:

Brawlers have clinched a spot in the Toilet Bowl. They can host the game with a win and Hamburglers loss. Hamburglers can escape the Toilet Bowl with a win and Buffalo loss since they beat Buffalo earlier this year. Ramjets and Old No. 7 escaped the Toilet Bowl this week with their win and tie respectively.

Week 12 Playoff Picture

I was going to do another ranking, but I'm going to retire that until the season is over. On the playoff side, a lot of teams dropped out of the playoffs this week. Seven teams will finish at least 7-7. Six of those teams will make the playoffs. That said, absolutely nothing has been clinched yet. Any of those seven teams could win their division and any of them could be the odd man out.

Middle Division:

• Bill (9-3) Bill visits Old No. 7 this week with a chance to clinch the division and the #1 seed in the playoffs.
• Malleus (7-5) If Bill loses and Malleus beats Buffalo this weeek, then Malleus will play Bill for the division crown the final week of the season.

Right Division:

• Flannel (8-4) Flannel can win the division this week if they beat Ramjets and Capo lose. Otherwise, they play Capo for the division the week after.
• Capo (7-4-1) If Capo beat Hamburglers or Flannel lose this week, then Capo get to play Flannel for the division the final game of the season.

Left Division:

• Drow (8-4) If Drow win out they win the division. Otherwise, its complicated. They visit Brawlers this week and host Mimes the next.
  
• Mimes (8-4) If Mimes win out they win the division. Otherwise, its complicated. They host Beavers this week before travelling to Murrysville to end the season.
• Beavers (7-5) Beavers need to beat Mimes this week to have a shot at the division but then they need a little help.

Some tie-breakers in this race: Beavers are 2-0 over Drow. Mimes are 1-0 over Beavers. Drow are 1-0 over Mimes. Mimes and Beavers are 3-1 inside the division so far and Drow are 1-3.

Wild Card:

The wild card race is a complete mess. Here's how all the team stand ranked against each other.

• Bill (9-3) currently the division leader
  
• Drow (8-4) beat Flannel, 1-0 against Mimes, currently the division leader
• Mimes (8-4) beat Flannel, 0-1 against Drow
• Flannel (8-4) currently the division leader
• Capo (7-4-1)
• Beavers (7-5) beat Malleus
• Malleus (7-5)

So, if the season ended today Malleus would be left out of the playoffs.

No one can be eliminated from the playoffs this week. But if either Beavers or Malleus lose this week everyone else who wins this week will clinch a wild card spot at worst. Bill could lose and clinch a wild card if Beavers also lose. (If Malleus lose, Bill clinches the division.)

Week 12 Quickie Game Reports

42 Old No. 7 @ 44 Brawlers
The most competative game this week. Old No. 7 was fighting for their playoff lives, but Brawlers swooped in with their second consecutive strong game and first win streak of the season. Old No. 7 now have only the toilet bowl to worry about.
Brawlers grade: B, offense: B, defense: C
Old No. 7 grade: B, offense: A, defense: C-

84 Capo @ Ramjets 16
Ramjets actually played a really good game. But its hard to compete against 146 total points. Wow! This spells the end of Ramjets' playoff hopes -- which seemed more real in my mind then on the field. Capo also stay right behind Flannel.
Capo grade: A+, offense: A+, defense: A
Ramjet grade: B, offense: C, defense: B

21 Bill @ 15 Drow
Neither of these teams seemed to want to win this game. In the end, Bill just managed to. The win keeps Bill 2 games in front of Malleus. The loss did not hurt Drow too much since all the Left Division leaders feel on their faces this week.
Bill grade: D, offense: C-, defense: D
Drow grade: F, offense: F, defense: C-

38 Malleus @ 32 Mimes
This was a better game then Bill-Drow, but that's not saying much. Malleus kept their division hopes alive with the win and Mimes failed to capitalize on Drow's loss and stay in a tie for the Right Division.
Malleus grade: C, offense: B, defense: D
Mime grade: C-, offense: C, defense: D

68 Buffalo @ 0 Beavers
With Capo and Malleus winning, Buffalo is reduced to playing spoiler. And spoil they did. Beavers stay 1 game behind the tied Drow and Mimes in the Left. They also fell into a tie for the last wild card spot.
Buffalo grade: A+, offense: A+, defense: B
Beaver grade: D, offense: F, defense: B

40 Flannel @ 10 Hamburglers
Flannel took care of business to stay in front of Capo. The win gives them a little margin for error next week and keeps the preasure on Capo to keep up.
Flannel grade: C, offense: C, defense: C
Hamburgler grade: F-, offense: D, defense: F-

Week 11 Quickie Rankings and Playoff Predictions

OK, can't help myself.

1. Mimes up 4
They've had the worst offense over the last 4 games but have you seen that D?

2. Flannel up 5
They're back! Two consecutive games of 70+ offensive points. Few enough teams have had consecutive games of 70+ total points lately.

3. Beavers down 2
One bad game doesn't drop them too far.

4. Malleus up 4
Very good game last week.

5. Ramjets down 3
This team certainly had the goods but just could not maintain the kind of run needed to over come that hole they dug.

6. Capo down 2
Now the defense is letting them down...

7. Drow down 4
Injuries have been a problem for a lot of teams, but Drow just can't keep a RB healthy to save their division championship hopes.

8. Old No. 7 up 3
The bad Old No. 7 has stabilized into the mediocre Old No. 7.

9. Bill no change
Got to love Bill. Hasn't scored more then 70 points in three weeks and hasn't lost either.

10. Brawlers up 3
I beg to differ with Haydn, for Brawlers, scoring 79 pts is pretty amazing. :)

11. Buffalo down 4
The last three weeks have been dreadful.

12. Hamburglers down 1
They haven't scored more then 62 total points since week 4.

Quickie Predictions

Mimes win Left 11-3
Bill wins Middle 9-5
Flannel wins Right 9-5

Wild Cards in order:
Beavers 9-5
Drow 9-5
Capo 8-5-1

Playoffs:
Flannel over Capo
Beavers over Drow

Mimes over Capo
Beavers over Bill

Beavers over Mimes

Week 11 Playoff Update

Thanks for Haydn for keeping things going in my work-induced absence. I'll probably forgo my usual posts this week, but I wanted to provide an update to the most important part... the playoffs.

Left Division

• Drow: Back in the drivers seat after Beavers' loss last week but this is still anyone's division to win. If it stays this close, the final week's match-up with Mimes will be huge.
• Mimes: Three consecutive games against winning records to close out the season.
• Beavers: A game back, but only have one really hard game left to play and hold the tie-breaker over Drow.

Middle Division

• Bill: If Bill wins two of the next three games, he'll win the division.
• Malleus: Haydn beat Bill earlier this season, so if he can pull to within one game before their season ending re-match, he's got a shot at the division.

Right Division

• Flannel: Only a half-game ahead, they play an almost identical schedule to Capo and finish the season hosting Capo.
• Capo: If Capo can stay with Flannel to the end, he can take the division with a win in that final game.

Wild Card
Since no one has clinched a division yet, there are a lot of teams that could be wild cards. Also, no one has clinched a play off spot as far as I can see. So to keep it simple, the below avoids the three teams currently leading their divisions.

• Mimes: At 8-3 there is almost no chance they miss the playoffs, but they are also just a likely to be a division champ as a wild card. One more win should clinch at least a wild card.
  
• Beavers: At 7-4 Beavers are also in really good shape to make the playoffs as at least a wild card.
• Capo: Right this second, Capo sit a half-game ahead of Malleus for the final wild card spot. They also could win their division.
• Malleus: While they still have a shot at the division, Malleus is only a half-game out of the last wild card spot.
• Ramjets: Just eliminated from contention for their division crown last weekend, Ramjets must win this week to stay in the wild card hunt.

Really Important Upcoming Games

This week

• Capo @ Ramjets: If Ramjets lose, they are eliminated from playoff contention. If they win they live to fight again next week.
• Bill @ Drow: Paradoxically, if the season ended today this game would be for the #1 seed in the playoffs.
• Malleus @ Mimes: Any battle between two potentially playoff bound teams is big at this stage of the game.

Next Week

• Beavers @ Mimes: Mimes first of two games against their division champion rivals.
• Flannel @ Ramjets: If Ramjets beat Capo the week prior, this will be another win or go home game for Ramejts, although they might start needing help at this point.

Season's Final Week
This could be a schedule makers wet-dream: three games between the top two teams in each division with the division championship on the line.

• Capo @ Flannel: If they stay within one-half game over the last two, then this game decides the division champ.
• Mimes @ Drow: This could get a lot more complicated because Beavers are also still in the mix, but its still very possible that the division will hinge on this game.
• Malleus @ Bill: If Malleus can pull to within 1 game of Bill over the course of the last two weeks, then they can win the division here because they already beat Bill previously and so would win the tie-breaker if they beat Bill again to tie him atop the Middle Division.

Week 12 Preview

Another Thursday Night game, this time it’s the Bengals and Steelers, so remember to set your rosters…

6-5 Malleus @ 8-3 Mimes
Mimes big two scorers have tough match-ups this week against Indy and Dallas, but it’s their defense that has the Hammer worried. Every game is a must win for Malleus if they want to win the Middle, and it looks like Drow and Beavers could both pick up wins this week, so Mimes needs a win to stay in the hunt in the very competitive Left.
Haydn’s prediction: Mimes by 3.

8-3 Bill @ 8-3 Drow
Two teams with equally impressive records, but this is not a battle of juggernauts. Marion Barber may run all over the 49ers, but Willie Parker may be the answer to Drow’s RB problems this Thursday against the Bengals. Drow need this one to keep pace with Mimes, and they get it.
Haydn’s prediction: Drow by 10.

6-4-1 Capo @ 4-7 Ramjets
Assuming that Ramjets is going to play Portis, he may have a field day against my Seattle Seahawks, but Lynch gets the even worse Chiefs. Brees vs. Warner, TO vs. Braylon Edwards, I have to give the nod to Capo in this one. Capo won the last meeting between these two by 25, I think this one is closer.
Haydn’s prediction: Capo by 7.

7-4 Flannel @ 3-8 Hamburglers
I know it’s unlikely, but I might make this my upset special of the week. Flannel is on fire after two 100+ games and the ‘burglers have pretty much given up. Insert a healthy LDT into the line-up and something special might happen. Every once in a while you have to pick this way, I should have seen the Brawlers rout of Capo last week…
Haydn’s prediction: Hamburglers by 5.

3-7-1 Old No. 7 @ 2-9 Brawlers
Can Brawlers pull another upset? Not this week against Romo playing SF and Forte running against the Rams. Even without a healthy DF the whiskey bottle wins this one outright.
Haydn’s prediction: Old No. 7 by 11.

3-8 Rednecks @ 7-4 Beavers
I picked Rednecks to win last week and John thought I was cursing him, so I won’t pick him again. Beavers do have some tough match-ups though, with McNabb going against the Baltimore D, after his poor showing against Cincy I’d be worried if I were Beavers. This one is up to Purple Jesus as usual, can he get it done?
Haydn’s prediction: Beavers by 2.

Week 11 Awards

Player of the Week
I give the nod this week to DeAngelo Williams, without his 22 Malleus loses this week. An honorable mention to Frank Gore, who’s 17 made up for Rivers -1 and kept Mimes from a tie game.

Offensive Player of the Week
I’ll base this one on points and give the nod to Peyton Manning who led Flannel in their rout of Beavers.

Defensive Player of the Week
James Harrison not only had the highest score at 16, he had a sack, an INT, a safety, and a forced fumble. This guy is a monster.

Goat of the Week
I’d give the nod to Rivers -1, but because Mimes still managed to win, I think Tony Romo’s 4 point effort deserves the Goat in Old No. 7’s loss to Malleus.

Bench Player of the Week
No game changers this week on any team. I could give the award to the combined bench of Hamburlgers (55 points) in losing by 20. Phil Dawson came closest to changing the outcome of his game with 17 more points than Gould. Gibril Wilson got 11 in a 15 point loss for Old No. 7; and the highest scoring bench player was Matt Cassell with 39 on Brawlers’ bench. Because he came closest, and this is the second week in a row that he’s outscored the starter significantly, I’ll give the award to Dawson.

Week 11: Flannel Crushes Beavers, Brawlers Slap Capo Silly

9 Mimes @ 0(-10) Ramjets
With the win, Mimes keeps pace with Drow atop the Left, while Ramjets sees their playoff hopes fade away. Ramjets has to win out to get to .500 and with the next two against Capo and Flannel, they might not be able to do it. Mimes got a great game out of it’s defense and Frank Gore helped make up for Rivers -1. Ramjets is dealing with a number of injuries at DF and only got 2 points out of both players.
Haydn got this one right, Doug got this one wrong.
Mimes Grade: B- offense: D+, defense A
Ramjets Grade: C- offense: D+, defense: C

27 Drow @ 7 Hamburglers
After losing two in a row to Beavers, Drow ends its skid against the ‘burglers. Drow needed a win to stop the Mimes from taking over first in the Left. Hamburglers are in a four team contest for the Toilet Bowl. Neither of these teams put up much of a fight but Drow was slightly closer to adequate.
Both Doug and Haydn got this one right.
Drow Grade: C- offense: C; defense: D
Hamburglers Grade: F+ offense: F+, defense: F

30 Brawlers @ 7 Capo
WTF? Brawlers’ 79 wasn’t earth shattering, and it helped that 3 of their players got an extra quarter of play in a rare NFL tie-game. What was surprising about this game was how bad Capo played. 11 on defense? 3 points combined from TO and Plax? Capo may not be as good as they think they are, or maybe this was just an off game. Will the whiskey bottle be the next victim of “good” Brawlers? I guess we’ll see.
Both Doug and Haydn got this one wrong.
Brawlers Grade: B offense: C, defense: B+
Capo Grade: D+ offense: C, defense: F+

0 Beavers @ 63 Flannel
Very poor game from Beavers after two tough wins against Drow. Flannel makes a statement and retakes the lead in the Right. This score would’ve been even worse if the refs in the Pittsburgh/San Diego game hadn’t gotten the call wrong at the end.
Haydn got this one right, Doug got this one wrong.
Beavers Grade: D offense: D+, defense: D
Flannel Grade: A offense: A+, defense: B+

21 Old No. 7 @ 36 Malleus
Tony Romo didn’t help his team in his first game back (in FLOF), and it didn’t help Jack Daniels that he started 2 injured defensemen. Still, the Hammer pulled this one out despite an impressive performance by Boldin, and a sub par defensive effort by his own guys. The win gives the Hammer a 3-1 record against the Middle and leaves Old No. 7 without a chance of climbing back to .500.
Both Doug and Haydn got this one right.
Old No. 7 Grade: C- offense: B-, defense: D+
Malleus Grade: B offense: B, defense: C+

9 Rednecks @ 18 Bill
Bill wins the second battle of the Bills without a single player scoring in double digits. It was enough to beat the Rednecks, who had only one player go over 7 points. Bill also hangs onto his lead in the Middle over Malleus by two games and guarantees a record over .500. Rednecks are fighting to not show up in the toilet.
Doug got this one right, Haydn got it wrong.
Rednecks Grade: C- offense: C, defense: D+
Bill Grade: C offense: C-, defense: B-

Starting Line-ups vs. Optimal: Week 11

1. Hamburglers: 31 vs. 86; Diff: 55 (lost by 20)
2. Bill: 65 vs. 107; Diff: 42 (won by 9)
3. Brawlers: 79 vs. 115; Diff: 36 (won by 23)
4. Mimes: 76 vs. 100; Diff: 24 (won by 19)
5. Beavers: 45 vs. 66; Diff: 21 (lost by 69)
6. Malleus: 80 vs. 99; Diff: 19 (won by 15)
7. Drow: 54 vs. 69; Diff: 15 (won by 20)
8. Capo: 53 vs. 64; Diff: 11 (lost by 23)
8. Old No. 7: 68 vs. 79; Diff: 11 (lost by 15)
10. Ramjets: 54 vs. 64; Diff: 10 (lost by 19)
11. Flannel: 111 vs. 117; Diff: 6 (won by 69)
12. Rednecks: 59 vs. 63; Diff: 4 (lost by 9)

Terrence McGee’s 21 points pushed me in to the top six, but Hamburgler wins again with 55 wasted points spread over 5 players. No one player could’ve made the difference, but Phil Dawson came close with 17 more points than Robbie Gould.

Week 11: Who’s Left to Play on Monday Night?

Two games down (Beavers 0(-6) @ Flannel 63) and (Old No. 7 21 @ Malleus 36) and only 5 players left, will any of them make a difference?

Mighty Mimes 9 @ Ramjets 0 (-15)
Players Left: Mimes: 0 | Ramjets: 1
If Braylon Edwards only had to make up 9 points this might be possible, but he’d have to score 25, and I don’t see that happening. Ramjets best chance in this game would be for a tie but they don’t have any defense left. Mimes keeps this one.

Drow 28 @ Hamburglers 7
Players Left: Drow: 0 | Hamburglers: 1
Can Sean Jones score 22? Probably not. If ‘burglers had played LDT (12 points) and TJ (13 points) we wouldn’t even have to talk about it. I think that Drow holds on.

Brawlers 30 @ Capo 0 (-21)
Players Left: Brawlers: 0 | Capo: 2
Brawlers is done, but they’ve also done enough to win. Capo gets a chance with Marshawn Lynch and Rian Lindell, can they score 51? I’m not giving them a chance, they make it slightly more respectable but this was a really bad game for Capo.


Rednecks 2 @ Bill 18
Players Left: Rednecks: 1 | Bill: 0
This is the only game that might change outcomes with Trent Edwards trying for 17 and the win for Rednecks. John informs me that Edwards highest scoring game so far is 14 and is counting himself out. I predicted Rednecks to win this game, and even though they had some pretty bad performances they really could still pull this one out (but not cover my 10 point spread).

Week 11: Thursday Night Notes…

Another Thursday shootout, but not with many starters involved. I was hanging on a thread with Moss having no points until the final seconds. Here’s who played and what was missed: Brawlers had the most points from last night, but missed out on the most as well.

Brawlers: 1 starter: Favre: 19
Malleus: 2 players starting: Moss: 7, Hobbs, 5
Drow: 1 starter: Pace: 3
Flannel: 1 starter: Vrabel: 1
Mimes: 1 starter: Coles: 1

Bench players:
Brawlers: Cassel: 39 points!
Beavers: T. Jones: 13; Gostkowski: 13
Ramjets: Welker: 5; Rhodes: 6
Hamburglers: Cotchery: 7
Drow: Revis: 1

Free agent Leon Washington scored 19, and Jabar Gaffney had 12.

Doug's Week 11 Preview

7-3 Beavers @ 6-4 Flannel
These teams are both in very close races for their division and neither can really afford a loss. I'd like to see Flannel consistently score before I declare that they are all the way back. Beavers hope to avoid a let-down after back-to-back drubbings of the Drow.
Vegas Line: Beavers by 1

7-3 Mimes @ 4-6 Ramjets
Ramjets need to split these next two games to have a chance to reach .500 and a possible playoff birth. This week they get a Mimes team that is desperate to keep up with co-division leaders Beavers and Drow. Next week they get Capo. And Portis may be hurt?
Vegas Line: Ramjets by 1

3-7 Buffalo Bills @ 7-3 Bill's Team
Buffalo fight for their playoff life this game while Bill tries to push Buffalo off the island and solidify their grip on the Middle Division.
Vegas Line: Bill's Team by 2

3-6-1 Old No. 7 @ 5-5 Malleus
The whiskey bottle is fighting to stay out of the playoff gutter and Malleus are fighting to overtake Bill for the division or Flannel for the final wild card spot. Can Romo save Old No. 7 in his first game back?
Vegas Line: Malleus by 12

7-3 Drow @ 3-7 Hamburglers
Drow just lost two in a row to division rival Beavers to lose their hold on the Left Division. They hope to regroup against a Hamburglers team that has not been playing well lately.
Vegas Line: Drow by 8.5

1-9 Brawlers @ 6-3-1 Capo
Brawlers have nothing left to play for, other then honor. Capo are only 1/2 game ahead of Flannel in the Right.
Vegas Line: Capo by 22.5

Week 10 Playoff Update

Four weeks to go and for everyone but the Left Division that includes three games inside their division.

Left Division
I don't ever remember a division race like this. This is turning into the greatest three-team sprint for a division title ever.

• Beavers (7-3): Great two game stretch for Beavers puts them in the drivers seat of this scrum. If they win out its over since they have already beat Drow once and will have the chance to knock Mimes down a peg.
• Mimes (7-3): Mimes quietly kept up with Beavers over the last two weeks and beat them earlier in the year so they too would win the Left if they win out. But Mimes have the harder remain schedule with games against Ramjets and Drow in addition to the Beaver game.
• Drow (7-3): Drow must hope Beavers lose one more game then they do to close out the season. They beat Mimes in week 1 so they could still win the division in a tie with Mimes.

Middle Division
Bill is pulling away again but anything is possible in this division.

• Bill (7-3): Very well could be the first to clinch a division.
• Malleus (5-5): The only team with a real good chance to catch Bill. Already beat Bill once this year.
• Old No. 7 (3-6-1): Next game Bill wins or Old No. 7 loses will eliminate Old No. 7 from division contention. But the last wild card is currently 6-4 so a wild card is more realisitic.
• Buffalo (3-7): If they lose to Bill this week they are also eliminated from contention. A loss and Flannel win would also eliminate them from wild card contention.

Right Division
This is also very tight at the top with only 1/2 game seperating Capo and Flannel.

• Capo (6-3-1): Obviously, the division is their's to lose but it will be hard for anyone but Flannel to catch them in the division race.
• Flannel (6-4): Only 1/2 game behind Capo, they do control their own destiny with a week 14 meeting looming large if they can stay close.
• Ramjets (4-6): Still breathing and only 2 games out of a wild card spot with four to go, so the playoffs are doable. But Capo would have to collapse for Ramjets to have a shot at the division.
• Hamburglers (3-7): A Capo win or Hamburgler loss this week will eliminate them from the division race. A Flannel win and Hamburgler loss would eliminate them from any playoff considerations.

Projections
Beavers win the Left at 11-3
Capo win the Right at 9-4-1
Bill win the Middle at 8-6
Drow are a wild card at 11-3
Mimes are a wild card at 9-5
Ramjets are a wild card at 7-7, beating out Malleus and Flannel in a three-way tie

Hamburglers (3-11) beat Brawlers (1-13) in Toilet Bowl

Ramjets beat Bill in the wild card round
Drow squeek by Mimes in the wild card round

Drow beat Capo in the semis
Beavers beat Ramjets in the semis

Haydn’s Week 11 Preview

Remember to set you line-ups by Thursday afternoon, Thursday night games again this week. This Thursday it’s the Patriots and the Jets.

Rednecks (3-7) @ Bill’s Team (7-3)
The records make this look like a mismatch but I think that Rednecks wins the battle of the Bills. Bill is not going with Kerry Collins because I made fun of him in my first preview, but I am changing my prediction.
Haydn’s prediction: Rednecks by 10.

Old No. 7 (3-6-1) @ Malleus Maleficarum (5-5)
The whiskey bottle gets their QB back this week, can he save the season? The numbers and match-ups said I would win last week against Ramjets, and they do again, I didn’t win but only because my QB only scored one point, don’t expect that to happen again. Hammer breaks whiskey bottle.
Haydn’s prediction: Malleus by 10.

Fightin’ Bitin’ Beavers (7-3) @ Export Flannel (6-4)
The new number one against the old…will the curse of Doug’s ranking stop the Beavers roll? Beavers looked good last week, Flannel looked like the team that won the FLOF bowl last year. This one will be close, but (if they fix their line-up) Flannel will manage to barely stop Beaver’s winning streak.
Haydn’s prediction: Flannel by 3.

Bushkill Brawlers (1-9) @ Capo di Tutti Capi (6-3-1)
If Westbrook scores 30+ against the Bengals, Brawlers might make this close, I don’t think that happens. Brawlers shouldn’t be this bad, but they are.
Haydn’s prediction: Capo by 8.

Murrysville Drow (7-3) @ N.Y. Hamburglers (3-7)
Hamburglers gets a QB and Drow get a RB (both from the same team) this week. I’d like to see the ‘buglers get a win, but they won’t.
Haydn’s prediction: Drow by 7.

Mighty Midtowne Mimes (7-3) @ Roger’s Ramjets (4-6)
Ramjets got lucky last week with a flawless performance by Kurt Warner and an improbable game by McGahee (both seeking revenge against the Hammer). No such luck this week against a very strong Mimes, will 7-7 be enough to get the new number two into the playoffs? Portis may be back this week but will he play? I don’t think it matters.
Haydn’s prediction: Mimes by 14.

Week 10 Rankings: Beavers, Come on Up

1. Beavers, up 3
Beavers are on a run now. Four consecutive wins. Four consecutive total scores over 70. Four consecutive offensive scores over 43.
Last 4 Games: B, C+, B, B
offense: B, C, A, A
defense: B, B, D, C
Projected Wins: 3.2 (actual wins: 4)

2. Ramjets, no change
The Ramjet offense has now scored over 50 points in 5 of their last 6 games. When the defense is respectable, they're hard to beat. This team is easily just a step behind Beavers right now.
Last 4 Games: B, D, C+, B
offense: B, D, B, B
defense: B, D, D, C+
Projected Wins: 2.4 (actual wins: 3)

3. Drow, down 3
Drow bounced back most of the way this week, but their second consecutive horrible backfield effort killed them. That backfield could cause Drow to sag as they close out the season. They need someone to get healthy at RB and hope Rodgers can recover his early season form.
Last 4 Games: B, A, F, C+
offense: B, A+, F, C+
defense: D, C-, C, C
Projected Wins: 2.4 (actual wins: 2)

4. Capo, up 1
Capo are getting mostly solid efforts from their defense which has compensated for an erratic offense. They are right with Drow and maybe just a half-step behind Ramjets and Beavers right now.
Last 4 Games: B, B, D, C+
offense: C, B, D, B
defense: A, C, B, C-
Projected Wins: 2.4 (actual wins: 3.5)

5. Mimes, down 1
Mimes switch places with Capo this week in the rankings but they are not far behind the teams above them here. The big concern for Mimes is that a stellar defense is hiding an offense that has been off. Even with the big guns back this week they scored only 4 pts higher then the week prior and have scored over 35 pts on offense only once in their last four games.
Last 4 Games: D, B, C-, A
offense: F-, B, D, D
defense: A+, C, B, A+
Projected Wins: 2.4 (actual wins: 3)

6. Flannel, up 4
Flannel finally broke through with a big game score this week. They have been performing better the two weeks prior but with only average results. This week it all clicked. If this is a trend, they are not done yet.
Last 4 Games: D, C-, C-, A
offense: F-, B, C-, A+
defense: C+, F-, C, C+
Projected Wins: 2.0 (actual wins: 2)

7. Buffalo Bills, down 1
Buffalo is finally consistently something. Unfortunatly that's a bad thing. Two consecutive weeks of bad scores all around may be the end of this team's hopes for the playoffs.
Last 4 Games: B, C-, D, D
offense: B, F, C-, C
defense: C+, A+, F, F
Projected Wins: 1.6 (actual wins: 1)

8. Malleus, up 1
This week was better then last week, but not by enough to move them much in the rankings. The offense is toping out at 40 pts which just isn't enough.
Last 4 Games: D, B, F, C
offense: D, C, F, C
defense: C, A, D, C+
Projected Wins: 1.6 (actual wins: 2)

9. Bill's Team, down 1
That's now consecutive games in which Bill's defense rode in to save the day. The offense has still not produced much so you've got to be a little concerned that they can keep this up.
Last 4 Games: D, D, C, C
offense: D, C-, F, C
defense: D, C-, A+, B
Projected Wins: 1.2 (actual wins: 2)

10. Old No. 7, down 1
The offense came up big this week but the defense disappeared. Still, their best outing recently, but still not a great outing.
Last 4 Games: D, D, C-, C
offense: F-, D, D, B
defense: B, D, A, F
Projected Wins: 1.2 (actual wins: 0.5)

11. Hamburglers, no change
Hamburglers have now scored under 60 in 5 of their last 6 games. They look done to me.
Last 4 Games: F, C-, D, D
offense: D, B, C-, C-
defense: F, F-, D, D
Projected Wins: 0.7 (actual wins: 1)

12. Brawlers, no change
Brawlers tried to bounce back again this week, but only compared to last week's 36, does 54 look like a major improvement. Its still good enough to keep them in the bottom spot of the rankings.
Last 4 Games: F-, C-, F-, D
offense: F-, B, F, D
defense: F-, F-, F, D
Projected Wins: 0.6 (actual wins: 0)

Week 10 Awards

Player of the Week
It looked like the combo-curse of having both Haydn and I pick Ramjets to win a playoff spot despite an 0-5 start had sunk their chances again. Then Kurt Warner rallied the troops Monday night and put up a week-high 28 pts for the come-from-behind win over Malleus.

Offensive Player of the Week
Adrian Peterson scored 27 while Beavers romped over Drow for the second straight week.

Defensive Player of the Week
Julius Peppers was not the only reason Mimes shut out the Brawlers, just the biggest. Big hand to the entire Mimes' defense whole put up 59 pts this week.

Goat of the Week
Ben Roethlisberger put up 1 point in a game Malleus ended up losing by 9. A QB should be able to put up 9 points.

Bench Player of the Week
We had a number of interesting candidates this week. Two practice squad QBs majorly outperformed their teams' starters: Brady Quinn put up 18 pts on Drow's PS while Aaron Rodgers put up 4; meanwhile, Matt Ryan scored 18 while Hamburglers just lived without a QB this week. Quinn would have netted Drow a tie while Ryan would have won Hamburglers their game.

However, I'm inclined to give teams a pass for keeping rookie QBs on the practice squad. So a big thanks to Kellen Winslow and Karlos Dansby who were on active rosters and also would have won their teams' their games. Winslow scored 14 on Old No. 7's bench which is 13 more then Marvin Harrison contributed to a game that ended in a tie. Mr. Dansby also scored 13 more then a player he could have replaced in the starting line-up as Maio Williams put up only 2 points for Malleus in a game they lost by 9.

Week 10: Left Deadlocked

30 Drow @ 44 Beavers
This is the kind of game we expected out of these two teams, but Beavers are surging at the right time and the combo of McNabb and Peterson are pretty tough right now. Drow again struggled in their backfield with no RB and only 4 from Rodgers. Beavers have drug Drow down into a three-way tie in the Left Division and Beavers (2-1) hold the current combined tie-breaker in head-to-head over Drow (1-2) and Mimes (1-1).
Haydn got this one right (Beavers by 1) Doug did not (Drow by 2)
Beaver Grade: B, offense: A, defense: C
Drow Grade: C+, offense: C+, defense: C

58 Flannel @ 21 Buffalo Bills
Peyton had a good game and Mewelde Moore contributed from the RB position to give Flannel their best game since week 3. Buffalo is now solidly out of their every-other-week trend and are facing playoff elimination squarely in the face.
Neither Doug (Buffalo by 1.5) Nor Haydn (Buffalo by 8) got this one right.
Flannel Grade: A, offense: A+, defense: C+
Buffalo Grade: D, offense: C, defense: F

27 Ramjets @ 18 Malleus
Great win for Ramjets who had to come from behind big Monday night and with McGahee filling in very well for Portis. The loss drops Malleus back to .500 while Ramjets keep their playoff dreams alive.
Neither Doug (Malleus by 2) Nor Haydn (Malleus by 10) got this one right.
Ramjet Grade: B, offense: B, defense: C+
Malleus Grade: C, offense: C, defense: C+

12 Hamburglers @ 28 Bill's Team
Huge win for Bill gets their lead in the Middle back to 2 games. Hamburglers are pushed to the brink of playoff elimination.
Haydn (Bill by 5) got this right Doug (Hamburglers by 2.5) did not.
Bill's Grade: C, offense: C, defense: B
Ham Grade: D, offense: C-, defense: D

39 Capo @ 39 Old No. 7
Well, the tie isn't as bad as a loss would have been for Capo, but they clearly did not get the result they had hoped for out of this game. Then again, Old No. 7 really could have used the win here. Capo stays in first in the Right but their lead is cut down to 1/2 game. Old No. 7 barely stays in the playoff hunt.
Neither Haydn (Old No. 7 by 2) nor Doug (Capo by 4.5) got this one either.
Capo Grade: C+, offense: B, defense: C-
Old No. 7 Grade: C, offense: B, defense: F

0 Brawlers @ 21 Mimes
This one we saw coming, at least. For the record, the only teams Mimes would not have shut-out this week were Ramjets and Flannel. Mimes took care of business over their two-game set against Brawlers while Drow dropped two against Beavers to throw the Left into a three-team deadlock. Mimes still have to play Beavers (won earlier) and Drow (lost earlier) again this year. Brawlers are now mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but they could still escape the Toilet Bowl.
Haydn (Mimes by 15) was correct on this pick Drow were correct as well (Mimes by 22.5), but Mimes did not cover.
Mime Grade: A, offense: D, defense: A++
Brawler Grade: D, offense: D, defense: D

Top Position Players through Week 10

We’re 10 games in and I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the top scorers in each position so far this year. Since we don’t get to see how bench players are scoring, there might be some surprises. BTW: Government offices in Alexandria are closed to today so no work for public defenders.

Quarterbacks:
1. Philip Rivers – Mimes
2. Kurt Warner – Ramjets
3. Drew Brees – Capo
4. Jay Cutler – Capo
5. Donovan McNabb – Beavers
21. Jake Delhomme – Malleus
22. Ben Roethlisberger – Malleus

Running Backs:
1. Clinton Portis – Ramjets
2. Adrian Peterson – Beavers
3. Brandon Jacobs – Capo
4. Thomas Jones – Beavers
5. Michael Turner – Rednecks

Wide Receivers:
1. Anquan Boldin – Old No. 7
2. Larry Fitzgerald – Bill
3. Calvin Johnson – Beavers
4. Roddy White – Drow
5. Santana Moss – Flannel
24. Randy Moss – Malleus
35. Plaxico Burress – Capo

Kickers:
1. John Carney – Rednecks
2. David Akers – Drow
3. Jason Elam – FA
4. Stephen Gostkowski – Beavers
5. Rian Lindell - Capo

Defensive Front
1. James Harrison – Flannel
2. LaMarr Woodley – Capo
3. Patrick Willis – Beavers
4. Joey Porter – Malleus
5. DeMarcus Ware – Rednecks

Defensive Back
1. Cortland Finnegan – Capo
2. Charles Woodson – Drow
3. Chris Gamble – Malleus
4. Antione Winfield – Rednecks
5. Nick Collins – Bill

Starting Line-ups vs. Optimal: Week 10

1. Hamburglers: 56 vs. 84; Diff: 28 (Lost by 16)
2. Capo: 72 vs. 97; Diff: 25 (Tied)
3. Old No. 7: 69 vs. 88; Diff: 19 (Tied)
4. Malleus: 67 vs. 81; Diff: 14 (Lost by 9)
4. Ramjets: 79 vs. 94; Diff: 14 (Won by 9)
4. Bill: 69 vs. 83; Diff: 14 (Won by 16)
7. Mimes: 94 vs. 105; Diff: 11 (Won by 43)
8. Brawlers: 54 vs. 64; Diff: 10 (Lost by 43)
9. Beavers: 84 vs. 92; Diff: 8 (Won by 14)
10. Rednecks: 54 vs. 61; Diff: 7 (Lost by 37)
11. Drow: 73 vs. 77; Diff: 4 (Lost by 14)
12. Flannel: 94 vs. 97; Diff: 3 (Won by 37)

Both Jamie and I could have won our games with the “optimal line-ups” (not to mention I did not count PS players and Matt Ryan would have helped Jamie) but mine is almost all from one player (Karlos Dansby – 15 points/McGee would’ve gotten me one more than Hobbs). I guess both Jason or Chris could have won their games also. Stupid Kurt Warner...

Thursday Night Notes…

The Thursday night game was a shootout this week and we had some pretty big scorers, many of them on the bench. Doug made a last minute (and correct) substitution of Eddie Royal for Vincent Jackson, Jason didn’t follow my advice and play Winslow, and Chris made his usual bad decision on the Cutler/Brees debate…at least as of last night. Here’s a re-cap:

Big Scorers (played)
Drow: Eddie Royal – 16 points
Bill’s Team: Brandon Marshall – 10 points
Mimes: Matt Prater – 9 points

Bigger Scorers (on the bench)
Capo: Jay Cutler – 35 points
Drow: Brady Quinn – 17 points
O-7: Kellen Winslow – 14 points
Hamburglers: Phil Dawson – 13 points

Last night’s losers:
Ramjets: Brandon Marshall – 0 points; and
D.J. Williams – 0 points

Week 10 Preview

7-2 Drow @ 6-3 Beavers
This heavy weight bout goes to round two. This is a huge game for the entire division. Drow can reassert control over the division with a win. A Beaver win could result in a three-way tie but would also give them the tie-breaker over Drow and an easier remaining schedule then Mimes. I'm going to hope that I will not screw up my roster again this week and maybe Steve leaves a couple points on the bench.
Vegas Line: Drow by 2

5-4 Flannel @ 3-6 Buffalo Bills
Last week's loss hurt Flannel but two of their next three I count as winnable for them starting with this game. If they can get wins in both of those games and find one more win against their three harder opponents they can get to 8-6 and stay in the playoff hunt. Buffalo put up the unusually bad odd-week performance last week so I have no idea what they'll do this week. Flannel has some bad match-ups this week so I'm giving Buffalo a slight home-field edge.
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1.5

3-6 Ramjets @ 5-4 Malleus
Recent scoring trends tell us Ramjets should win this game but if they don't it could spell the end of Ramjets' playoff push before they even get to a tougher two-game stretch next week. It could also be the win Malleus needs to push them into the playoffs. No Portis this week for Ramjets and given his back-up situation there, I can't pick him.
Vegas Line: Malleus by 2

3-6 Hamburglers @ 6-3 Bill's Team
Bill regained control of the Middle Division with last week's win while Hamburglers kept their playoff hopes alive with their win. Hamburglers are one of four teams who have to win out to finish the season with a winning record, so every game is important to them. The question for Jamie is: is it time to bring Ryan off the practice squad? If he does, I'll take Ham. Otherwise, I'll take Bill.
Vegas Line: Hamburglers by 2.5

6-3 Capo @ 3-6 Old No. 7
If Capo win this I think they get to 10 wins with their favorable remaining schedule. Old No. 7 are another of the teams that must win out to finish over .500 but it gets a little easier after this week so a win here will help out a lot.
Vegas Line: Capo by 4.5

1-8 Brawlers @ 6-3 Mimes
Brawlers could be eliminated from playoff contention this week if they lose and either Malleus or Flannel win. A Mimes' win would keep them at most 1 game behind Drow or possibly tied for the division. Mimes' get Rivers back this week so expect a blow out.
Vegas Line: Mimes by 22.5

Playoff and Predictions Update, 5 Weeks Left

Left Division
It certainly looks like three teams will go to the playoffs from this division. The Drow-Beaver game this week will really set the tone for the end of the season. Another key will be Mimes' game against Ramjets in week 11 because its easily the toughest out-of-division game for any of the top three teams. Then Mimes' end with both the Beavers and Drow in weeks 13 and 14.

Prediction:

• Drow finish 11-3 and win division by beating either Beavers this week or Mimes in week 14
• Beavers finish 10-4 and gain the first wild card slot again assuming they split their remaining games against Drow and Mimes
• Mimes finish 9-5 assuming they lose two of their remaining three tough games
• Brawlers finish 1-13. They already can not win the division and can be eliminated from the playoffs as early as this weekend
  

Middle Division
This is a complete crap-shoot. I think Old No. 7 has a slightly easier schedule then any one else with a shot at all their remaining games while Malleus looks like they have the toughest remaining opponents with two games (Ramjets and Mimes) they should not win. But in the end I think the fact that Bill has 1-2 games up on everyone else still will make the most difference.

Predition:

• Bill finishes 8-6 and wins division
• Malleus finishes 7-7 and loses out to Ramjets for last wild card spot
• Buffalo finishes 5-9
• Old No. 7 finishes 5-9

Right Division
Capo have emerged as the lead dog in this pack and I think it is real unlikely now that Ramjets can overtake them. And I give Flannel little shot to stay in the race.

Prediction:

• Capo finishes 10-4 if they can defeat Old No. 7 this week
• Ramjets finish 7-7 if they can split their two hardest games against Mimes and Capo in weeks 11 and 12, assuming they beat Malleus this week they would gain the last wild card slot in the tie-breaker
• Flannel finish 6-8 picking up their last win over either Buffalo or Hamburglers
• Hamburglers finish 4-10 and host the Toilet Bowl picking up their last win over either Bill or Flannel

Playoffs
With Ramjets no-longer at home, their road gets harder but I'm still predicting an original franchise smack down and the first all Left Division FLOF Bowl.

• Ramjets crush Bill in the wild card round
• Beavers barely beat Mimes thanks to home field in the other wild card game

• Drow edge Ramjets thanks to home field
• Beavers upset Capo

• Drow edge Beavers in FLOF Bowl. This last prediction is completely 50/50. Player availability will be key especially in the backfield. Drow are vulnerable to the 4-4 Packers missing the playoffs and Beavers will have to keep an eye on the Vikings in that same division and the Eagles who look OK now but play in a very tough division.

Haydn’s Week 10 Preview

Remember to set you line-ups by Thursday afternoon, Thursday games are starting this week. With that in mind, I’ll do my predictions before the first game…

Export Flannel (5-4) @ Rednecks (3-6)
Flannel’s dynamic duo face the leagues best defense this week and without Santana Moss, Flannel will probably have to rely on his defense who will get back Tatupu and has Harrison getting points at the expense of his QB. John is hoping that the inconsistent Bulger has one of his good games against the Jets, and Michael Turner has one of his good games against the Saints. With the match-ups, I give this one to the Rednecks.
Haydn’s prediction: Rednecks by 8.

Capo di Tutti Capi (6-3) @ Old No. 7 (3-6)
One more week until Romo comes back to try and save Jason’s season, but this week he has Garrard go again, and against the horrible Lions, but Forte has to go against the Titans, a no one runs against them. Capo loses TO, but gets back Brees. This might actually be a close one, and I love to see Jason win…
Haydn’s prediction: Old No. 7 by 2.

N.Y. Hamburglers (3-6) @ Bill’s Team (6-3)
As of right now, Hamburglers has no QB starting this week, and Bill is missing a DF and starting Shaun Hill. LDT will run rampant against a horrible KC, but I don’t know if I can call this game yet. Leftwich may be a good temporary solution, if he even plays. A new prediction will probably follow, but with the current rosters:
Haydn’s prediction: Bill’s Team by 5.

Roger’s Ramjets (3-6) @ Malleus Maleficarum (5-4)
When I did my play-off predictions I gave this game to Ramjets. Will McGahee and Williams seek revenge against the Witch’s Hammer? It’s happened before…getting Delhomme back from the bye may give the Hammer some life on offense, and it helps if I choose the right two WRs to start this week. I’d hate to curse myself by I think the Hammer wins this one.
Haydn’s prediction: Malleus by 10.

Murrysville Drow (7-2) @ Fightin’ Bitin’ Beavers (6-3)
Big rematch with big playoff implications. If (when) Mimes wins, we could have a 3-way tie for first in the Left. Drow squandered 45 points on the bench last week and Beavers played the perfect roster. Can Beavers repeat? This will be a close game this time, but I give the nod to the home team again.
Haydn’s prediction: Beavers by 1.

Bushkill Brawlers (1-8) @ Mighty Midtowne Mimes (6-3)
Mimes gets Rivers and Gore back for the turn-around match-up this week. If they won without their two highest scoring players, I think they take this one too. Brawlers does get Colston back this week, but Matt Jones may get suspended this week…
Haydn’s prediction: Mimes by 15.

Week 9 Rankings: Brawlers Back to the Bottom

1. Drow, no change
Last week was Drow's worst effort of the season, but there isn't a wart free team around and they've been solid the rest of the their last four games. Can they bounce back next week?
Last 4 Games: B, B, A, F
offense: C, B, A+, F
defense: A, D, C-, C
Projected Wins: 2.8 (actual wins: 3)

2. Ramjets, up 1
Ramjets bounced back as I expected. The offense is really cooking for Ramjets. They've scored over 50 points in 4 of their last 5 games.
Last 4 Games: A+, B, D, C+
offense: B, B, D, B
defense: A+, B, D, D
Projected Wins: 2.5 (actual wins: 3)

3. Beavers, up 4
Right on cue, the Beaver offense looks like it has found its stride. Specifically, Adrian Peterson is on a little run. Upgrade Beavers from that second tier to solidly in the first tier.
Last 4 Games: D, B, C+, B
offense: D, B, C, A
defense: C-, B, B, D
Projected Wins: 2.4 (actual wins: 3)

4. Mimes, down 2
Mimes have been a little up and down lately. But last week was a bad week: missing both Rivers and Gore. But Hightower has emerged to provide depth for Mimes down the stretch. If Mimes' get back to their old ways they could easily get back into that top tier. For now, they are one of two teams in between the top tier and middle tier.
Last 4 Games: B, D, B, C-
offense: B, F, B, D
defense: C, A+, C, B
Projected Wins: 2.3 (actual wins: 3)

5. Capo, down 1
Capo did not really drop a spot as much as Beavers leap-frogged them. Capo remains a dangerous team that periodically lapses. They lapsed a little last week after two very good games. They are clearly better then the mass of common teams in the teir below them, but they have not been consistent enough to prove they belong in that top tier.
Last 4 Games: C, B, B, D
offense: C-, C, B, D
defense: C+, A, C, B
Projected Wins: 2.3 (actual wins: 3)

6. Buffalo Bills, down 1
Despite some hope following last week's even-week bad game, Buffalo put together their first odd-week bad game. They are now the first team in a group that typically varies their game scores from OK to bad from week to week.
Last 4 Games: F, B, D, D
offense: F, B, F, C-
defense: C-, C+, A, F
Projected Wins: 1.5 (actual wins: 1)

7. Bill's Team, up 4
Bill's defense saved the team from putting together their third consecutive stinker. But I don't think you can count on that every week. Or even every other week.
Last 4 Games: C+, D, D, C
offense: B, D, C-, D
defense: C, D, C-, A+
Projected Wins: 1.2 (actual wins: 2)

8. Old No. 7, no change
A lot like Bill, they had a huge defensive effort this week make them look a little better, but its also the second time in their last three games that the defense has out-scored the offense. Romo-watch: Dallas has their bye this week so maybe we'll see offense here in two weeks?
Last 4 Games: C, D, D, C-
offense: B, F-, D, D
defense: D, B, D, A
Projected Wins: 1.2 (actual wins: 0)

9. Malleus, down 3
After showing life on offense last week, Malleus' offense took this week off. And the defense scored half what they did the week before. But the offense is the real concern here. On the plus side, everyone else in their division is struggling too.
Last 4 Games: D, D, B, F
offense: F-, D, C, F
defense: B, C, A, D
Projected Wins: 1.1 (actual wins: 3)

10. Flannel, no change
The teams above Flannel in this ranking have scored above the mean more recently then week 5. Flannel and the two teams below them in this ranking have not. But Flannel have gotten close two weeks in a row. The offense is trying to keep their head above water and unlike their neighbors in the basement, Flannel had a great start to the season they can try to hold onto.
Last 4 Games: F, D, C, C
offense: D, F-, B, C-
defense: F, C+, F-, C
Projected Wins: 1.0 (actual wins: 1)

11. Hamburglers, up 1
Hamburglers stay at the bottom of the rankings was short-lived but only because Brawlers crashed back to earth hard this week. The offense got worse this week and the defense got a little better, but they still aren't a good team they've just stayed away from completly rotten outings a little more often.
Last 4 Games: D, F, C-, D
offense: D, D, B, C-
defense: C, F, F, D
Projected Wins: 0.7 (actual wins: 2)

12. Brawlers, down 3
And their back. Brawlers followed up a defensive explosion in week 8 with a team total 36 pts. Which is significantly better then week 7's 8 pts but not much else.
Last 4 Games: D, F-, C-, F-
offense: D, F-, B, F
defense: C, F-, F-, F
Projected Wins: 0.6 (actual wins: 0)