FLOF Blog

2009 Final Rankings and Predictions Revisited

2010-02-22T07:00:00.000-05:00

Bill won the FLOF Bowl and for that he will forever get credit for being the best of 2009. But as I look back on the 2009 season I rank the performance of all 12 teams a little differently then the Ws and Ls. These rankings are based on looking at total scores each week to produce an expected number of wins based on those scores as they compare to historical scoring over the last 2 years.

So, the final 2009 Rankings.

The Good:

1. Malleus: Expected Wins 9.5, Actual Wins 9, Division Runner-Up, Playoff Final-4, Pre-season rank 6th, predicted Wild Card. Not bad. The team was a lot stronger then I expected but end result was pretty much the same.

2a. Drow: Expected Wins 8.8, Actual Wins 7, Lost Division, Just Missed Playoffs, Pre-season rank 4th, predicted Division win. Again my prediction was semi-right. I thought I had a decent team and I was right but I didn't get the results I had hoped for and the remarkable parity in FLOF this year means that losing 1 game meant the difference between a Division win and missing the playoffs.

2b. IC Lagers: Expected Wins 8.8, Actual Wins 7.5 (a tie), Just Missed Playoffs, Pre-season rank 12th, predicted Division lost. This one caught me by surprise. Kudos to Tim. I placed Drow in the 2a slot because they had a slightly better offensive median this season (median power was the same for these two as well).

4. Rednecks: Expected Wins 8.5, Actual Wins 8, Wild Card, Lost Wild Card game, Pre-season rank 1st, predicted Division winner. Rednecks were a strong team as I figured they would be but I didn't figure on the insane competition they would face in-side their own division.

5. Beavers: Expected Wins 8.3, Actual Wins 7.5, Division Runner-Up, Wild Card, Lost Wild-Card game, Pre-season rank 7th, predicted 3rd in division. Beavers did a little better this year then I thought they would and cashed in with a playoff appearance.

The Average:

6. Bill: Expected Wins 7.9, Actual Wins 9.5, Division Winner, FLOF Bowl Champ, Pre-season rank 10th, predicted division loss. Bill's Team was a stronger team then I thought they would be and they peeked at the right time, playing strong to close out the season and through the playoffs to capture the flaming football.

7. Old No. 7: Expected Wins 7.9, Actual Wins 6, Division loss but Just Missed Playoffs, Pre-season rank 8th, predicted 3rd in division and just miss playoffs. Apparently I got Old No. 7 all figured out.

8. Capo: Expected Wins 6.6, Actual Wins 6.5, Division runner-up, Just missed playoffs, Pre-season rank 2nd, predicted division winner. The whole right division pretty much threw me for a loop this year. I expected Capo to fight for the division this year but not because everyone in the division was a mediocre team at best.

9. Mimes: Expected Wins 6.3, Actual Wins 9, Division winner, lost Wild Card game, Pre-season rank 3rd, predicted division runner-up. Another team the under-performed my prediction in someways but not in wins and losses. Mimes had the largest discrepancy between expected wins and actual wins by far. Most teams landed within a win or two of expected. Mimes won nearly 3 games more then they probably should have.

10. Ramjets: Expected Wins 6.3, Actual Wins 7, Division winner, FLOF-Bowl runner-up, pre-season rank 11, division loss. Ramjets were pretty much as bad as I thought they would be this year but no one in their division was really strong so they hung around, got hot in the playoffs, and almost won it all.

11. Hamburglers: Expected Wins 6.1, Actual Wins 5, 3rd in division, Toilet Bowl loser, pre-season rank 9th, predicted 3rd in division. This was the only team in the Right Division I had pegged from the start. Although they fooled me after they started the season strong only to fall back to where I thought they'd be.

And the Bad:

12. Flannel: Expected Wins 4.4, Actual Wins 2, Division loss, Toilet Bowl winner, pre-season rank 5th, division runner-up and wild card. Clearly this team did not perform as well as I thought they were going to on any level.

If I give myself a win for predicting a team's final ranking within 3 spots of my pre-season ranking I got .500 this year. Three teams outperformed my pre-season rank, three did worse, and I predicted six teams pretty well.

FLOF Rules Discussion

2010-02-17T07:00:00.000-05:00

Last year I dropped the ball and nothing got done on the rules front.

So, lets revisit what we had thought about last year plus any new thoughts and kick around the ideas again for discussion a little later.

Here's the link to the forum area that has last year's conversations plus some new entries from me:

http://www.lucidphoenix.com/flof/forum/topic.asp?id=13

(you have to log-in first)

FLOF Bowl Summary

2010-02-16T07:00:00.002-05:00

Bill lead the league with 4 pro bowl players and 3 1st teamers. Ten franchises were represented at the Pro Bowl. Only Mimes and Ramjets failed to have any player named to the pro bowl.

Bill's Team: Chris Johnson (1), Larry Fitzgerald (1), Jon Beason (1), Adrian Wilson (2)

Beavers: Patrick Willis (1), Adrian Peterson (2), Charles Woodson (2)

Hamburglers: Darrelle Revis (1), Reggie Wayne (2), Jared Allen (2)

Drow: Nate Kaeding (1), Aaron Rodgers (2)

Old No. 7: DeSean Jackson (1), David Akers (2)

Capo: Drew Brees (1)

Lagers: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (1)

Flannel: James Harrison (2)

Malleus: Brian Dawksin (2)

Rednecks: Andre Johnson (2)

Coach of the Year

2010-02-15T07:00:00.000-05:00

A primary vote gives a coach 2 pts and a runner-up vote gives a coach 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Coach of the Year:

Coach of the Year: Bill (9 pts, 4 1st place votes)

Runner-Up: Hadyn (3 pts), Roger (3 pts, 1 1st place vote)

Also receiving votes: Tim (2 pts, 1 1st place vote), Darin (1 pt)

Bill's team won the regular season with an impressive 9-4-1 record considering he had to out-duel Hadyn's very strong team for that honor in addition to other strong divisional foes. Roger is an interesting case here with a team that made the playoffs on a .500 record and then stepped it up to contest a FLOF Bowl. An argument could be made that Roger had less talent on his roster then many other teams.

I think there are a lot of ways to try to judge success as a coach. Although I think my approach is a little flawed, I like to look at improvement from year to year. For that, Tim can't be beat. He took over a Brawlers team that was horrible and despite a rough start generally improved his team significantly on the field. Hadyn got my other vote. I know he won the FLOF Bowl last year but I think his team was much better this year and then what I felt was a rather average team last year that performed a bit above its head and did well in the playoffs.

Goat of the Year

2010-02-12T07:00:00.002-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Goat of the Year:

Goat: Brandon Jacobs (3 pts, 1 1st place vote)

Runner-Up: Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Brian Westbrook, Carson Palmer all received 1 1st place vote

Also receiving 1 reunner-up vote: Matt Hasselbeck Jason Witten, Kerry Collins, Clinton Portis, Eli Manning

Brandon was the only guy to appear on two ballots. But goat is a pretty inexact science.

Brandon was my first choice actually, Witten was my second choice. But I mostly focused on people who played more and still did not do well. Kerry Collins was a particularly interesting choice as someone who ended up not playing much, but could have been expected to do better, or at least finish out the season starting in the NFL...

League MVP

2010-02-11T07:00:00.002-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

League MVP

MVP: Chris Johnson (7 pts, 3 1st place votes)

Runner-Up: Drew Brees (6 pts, 2 1st place votes)

Also receiving votes: Aaron Rodgers (2 pts, 1 1st place vote), Patrick Willis (1 pt), Brett Favre (1 pt), Adrian Peterson (1 pt)

For the second year in a row, the league MVP was NOT the offensive MVP. In an interesting reversal, Brees and CJ switch spots for over-all MVP. Maybe CJ got a boost for helping Bill to the league best record while Brees' CAPO team failed to make the playoffs or even finish over .500 on the season.

Shockingly to you all, my man-crush on Rodgers continues through to this category. I was also the only person to give some love to defense. This is where I remind you that he had 9 games where he scored 7 or more pts and never scored less then 5 points in a game. That may not seem like a lot compared to an average RB but he averaged nearly 5 pts better every game then the counterpart on the team he played that week. That's worth something in my book.

No really bad votes here either so I'll call myself out for being the only person to vote for neither Brees nor CJ.

Offensive MVP

2010-02-10T07:00:00.001-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Offensive MVP

MVP: Drew Brees (8 pts, 3 1st place votes)

Runner-Up: Chris Johnson (5 pts, 2 1st place votes)

Also receiving votes: Aaron Rodgers (3 pts, 1 1st place vote), Adrian Peterson (1 pt), Peyton Manning (1 pt)

The top two was probably predictable here. It was likely CJs early season stumble that gave Brees the top spot here. It is interesting that CJ got as much love as he did from a raw statistical perspective since he placed 5th in total points scored this year and 4th in pts per game.

I voted as I did for QB giving Rodgers my top vote and Manning my second vote. To me, CJ is the RB equivalent of Brees. Really, really good but he had a couple more stumbles this year then Rodgers and Peyton in a year with several excellent offensive players.

I don't really see a bad vote among this group although my runner-up vote for Peyton looks like the most on the limb vote since he didn't even make the top 2 at his position.

Pro Bowl Quarterbacks

2010-02-09T07:00:00.000-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Pro Bowl Quarterbacks

First Team: Drew Brees (8 pts, 4 1st team votes)

Second Team: Aaron Rodgers (4 pts, 1 1st team vote)

Also receiving votes: Peyton Manning (2 pts), Kurt Warner (2 pts, 1 1st team vote), Brett Favre (1 pt), Tony Romo (1 pt)

This was the year of the QB. Previously I would have gone with 2004 which headlined Peyton Manning's then record setting 313 pt, 26.08 pts/gm season -- records for any player let alone QB. But 2004 also had Daunte Culpepper put up 232 pts at 19.33 per game and McNabb contributed 223 (18.58 per). At the time those were the 3 best QB seasons for total points and 3 of the top 5 for pts / game.

Now this: Brees and Rodgers come in with the 3rd and 4th best per game average for a QB ever, Manning ties for 6th and Favre and Brady come in 14th and 15th. Those 5 QBs each scored more total points this season then all but 2 QBs ever (Brady in 07 and Manning in 04). Oh, and Rivers chipped in with the 12th best season total for a QB. Rivers scored the most points by a QB in 2008, scored more points this year and was the 6th best in 2009 in total points scored.

In the end, Brees and Rodgers finished in their order of total points and pts/gm. But I was one of the two people to give my 1st place vote to someone not named Brees. In fact, I ranked Brees 3rd behind Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Looking at per game totals the gap between Peyton and Brees is less then 2 pts per game. Rodgers had only 1 game all year where he scored less then 13 (median for QBs recently) and he scored 17 or more in 10 of his 12 starts. Peyton never scored less then 9 pts in a game all year and had 7 games of 17 or more pts. Brees also had 7 games with 17 or more points but had two games where he scored 6 and 2 pts respectively.

Any way you slice it we're splitting hairs amongst most of these QBs, so I have trouble faulting most of the votes. That said, I think Romo was a bit of a reach and Warner was another silly vote. Warner played in only 2 regular season games. And while his 17.5 pts per game is nice, its 8th among all QBs this year, behind other luminaries like Jason Campbell and Matt Cassel who both played 1 game this year.

Pro Bowl Running Backs

2010-02-08T07:00:00.001-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Pro Bowl Running Backs:

First Team: Chris Johnson (11 pts, 5 1st place votes)

Second Team: Adrian Peterson (7 pts, 1 1st place vote)

No one else received a vote. There have been a couple seasons where only 3 RBs received votes but this is the first time we've only seen 2 vote getters. Which seems to reflect the difficulty in finding a good RB this year.

Chris Johnson had far and away the most points by any RB this year with 232. Peterson was second with only 169. CJ tied for the 3rd most points ever by a RB in a FLOF season with Priest Holmes circa 2002 and behind TD from 1998 and LDT from 2006. His 19.33 pts/gm mark ties him for 4th all time for a RB.

I know I gave CJ a hard time at the beginning of the year -- his first 4 FLOF games started with a 43 pointer but was followed by 3 efforts of 6 pts or LESS. But he never failed to score double digits again all year and 5 of his last 8 games were over 20 pts.

AP was my runner-up as well. He had 7 games of 12 or more pts during the year and only once scored less than 5 pts but he just wasn't as explosive as CJ.

Pro Bowl Wide Receivers

2010-02-05T07:00:00.000-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Pro Bowl Wide Receivers:

First Team: Larry Fitzgerald (10 pts, 4 1st place votes)

First Team: DeSean Jackson (6 pts, 3 1st place votes)

Second Team: Andre Johnson (4 pts, 2 1st place votes)

Second Team: Reggie Wayne (4 pts, no 1st team votes)

Also receiving votes: Percy Harvin (3 pts, 1 1st team vote), Randy Moss (3 pts, 1 1st team vote), Greg Jennings (2 pts, 1 1st team vote), Miles Austin (1 pt), Roddy White (1 pt), Donald Driver (1 pt), Anquan Boldin (1 pt)

Despite the fact that 11 different WRs received votes Fitzgerald appeared on every ballot, usually as a 1st teamer. This was an interesting list of players and people seemed to have very different approaches to picking their favorites here.

Fitzgerald clearly was the favorite of most but he was 2nd in total pts and 4th in pts per game.

My top 5 included all 4 pro-bowlers at this position. But I had Percy Harvin rated as my best WR this year and was the only top receiver I looked at who never scored fewer then 2 pts in a game this year. But after that I feel in line with the rest of the group with Jackson as my other first teamer and Fitzgerald as my top second teamer, Wayne as the other and Andre Johnson just missing out on my ballot.

This was another position with a wide array of options but my biggest surprise would be Greg Jennings who was not on my radar as a top WR. I was also a little surprised that Colston got no love.

Pro Bowl Kickers

2010-02-04T07:00:00.000-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Pro Bowl Kickers:

First Team: Nate Kaeding (9 pts, 4 1st place votes)

Second Team: David Akers (6 pts, 1 1st place vote)

Also receiving votes: Stephen Gostkowski (2 pts, 1 1st place vote), Garret Hartley (1 pt)

Kaeding, Akers, and Gostkowski were 1-3 in pts/gm this season in FLOF. Kaeding was particularly explosive this year as well scoring 12 or more points in 6 games this year.

Interestingly, I was the guy who voted for Akers then Kaeding. In the end, Akers and Kaeding both scored double digit points 7 times but Akers scored fewer then 8 only once while Kaeding had 4 sub-8 pt games including twice scoring 4 or less.

Hartley was the odd vote here. Gostkowski had a pretty strong case for being one of the top kickers this year but Hartlet only played 1 game in the regular season for FLOF but he did score 15 points for Bill en route to a championship including 10 pts in the FLOF Bowl so that may have swayed his backer, despite the fact that these are supposed to be regular season awards.

Defensive MVP

2010-02-03T07:00:00.000-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Defensive MVP: Patrick Willis (7 pts, 3 1st place votes)

runner-up: Darrelle Revis (6 pts, 2 1st place votes)

also receiving votes: DeMarcus Ware (2 pts, 1 1st place vote), Jon Beason (1 pt), Jared Allen (1 pt), Nick Barnett (1 pt)

Defensive MVP was the category that had the lowest point total for the winner, which shows that people were pretty much undecided about the award. That said, Since Revis and Willis were the top vote getters at their position it is not surprising that they captured all but 1 first place vote between them here.

Willis and Revis was exactly how I voted. Although Revis has a better pts/gm of 12.8 over Willis' 9.5. Willis did it for a full 13 games to Revis' 8 games. I also love Willis' low score of 5 pts. Revis had only one game score lower then that, but I think Willis being able to do it for the full season was what game him my first place vote in a close decision.

At first glance, DeMarcus Ware and Nick Barnet look like odd votes here since they did not receive votes for DF. But Ware was at least on my short list of DFs to consider where as Barnet was not. In fact, Barnet only played 3 games this year and averaged less then 5 pts per game.

Pro Bowl Defensive Fronts

2010-02-02T07:00:00.000-05:00

A first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Pro Bowl Defensive Fronts:

First Team: Patrick Willis (10 pts, 5 first place votes)

First Team: Jon Beason (9 pts, 3 first place votes)

Second Team: Jared Allen (7 pts, 3 first place votes)

Second Team: James Harrison (3 pts, no first place votes)

Also receiving votes: Ray Lewis (2 pts), Karlos Dansby (2 pts, 1 1st place vote), David Harris (1 pt), Aaron Schobel (1 pt), London Fletcher (1 pt)

If you decided that 7 games or more was your cut-off then the 4 pro-bowl DFs were top 4 in both total points this season and points per game. In fact, they appeared in that order, except for Beason and Allen who ranked 2-3 in pts and pts/gm but came out in the opposite order in pro bowl voting. Unlike the DB voting, the 4 pro-bowlers were pretty much full-time starters all season long -- either 12 or 13 starts.

Willis was crazy good this year. He scored 7 or more points 9 times in 13 starts. [7 points represents the top 1/3 of a DF score over the past couple of seasons.] And his lowest score all season was 5 pts. The average pts for a DF this year was 5.89 per game. He basically never scored less then that.

I also had Willis and Beason 1-2 in my voting. Beason never scored less then 3 pts all season which isn't quite like Willis, but that still means he never failed to contribute. I picked Ray Lewis and David Harris for my second teamers but Harrison and Allen were certainly on my radar. I think that after Willis there were a bunch of solidly good DFs this season so I certainly understand where the Allen and Harrison arguments are coming from. I think Allen is another Charles Woodson in many ways. Allen had 6 games with double digit scores but 4 games where he scored 1 or 0 pts -- which is very much what you can expect from a really good DE in FLOF and I rewarded consistency with my voting more then boom-bust.

Aaron Schobel was the Bernard Pollard vote for this position. He was not on a FLOF roster this year either. In fact, he hasn't scored a FLOF points since 2006 despite playing 1 game last year. And no, the same person who voted for Pollard is not the same person who voted for Schobel.

Pro Bowl Defensive Backs

2010-02-01T09:00:00.002-05:00

First in a series of posts on the 2009 FLOF Pro Bowl results. This will allow me to talk more in depth about some of the players and I will also note oddities and trends in voting and defend my own votes. Obviously those others who voted can discuss in the comments. For all categories a first team, or primary vote gives a player 2 pts and a second team or runner-up vote gives a player 1 pt. Most points wins. Since 6 people voted, 12 pts would be a unanimous selection.

Pro Bowl Defensive Backs

First Team: Darrelle Revis (8 pts, 4 1st place votes)
First Team: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (8 pts, 4 1st place votes)

Second Team: Charles Woodson (5 pts, 1 1st place vote)
Second Team: Brian Dawkins (3 pts, 1 1st place vote)
Second Team: Adrian Wilson ( 3 pts, 0 1st place votes)

Also receiving votes: Asante Samuel (2 pts), DeAngelo Hall (2 pts, 1 first place), Ed Reed (2 pts, 1 first place), Bernard Pollard (1 pt), Darren Sharper (1 pt), Cortland Finnegan (1 pt)

The voting here seemed to go pretty much along pts/gm lines while ignoring the guys with only 1 or 2 games this year. Everyone here averaged more then 7 pts/gm over at least 7 games worth of work. Interestingly none of them played more then 11 games. And other then Woodson most of them were late season plays, all but one start among the other 4 DBs occurred after week 4.

Revis, by the way, was an absolute beast. He was a mid-season free agent acquisition and didn't start a game until week 6 but of his 8 games, 6 were 10 plus games, in only 1 game did he score less then 3 pts.

This outcome was almost exactly my thinking on the issue. Woodson is the only guy here I'd argue with. Sure his 7.3 pts/gm looks good but I think its way skewed by the fact that he had 4 10+ pt games including a 25 pointer. Sure that's impressive, but he also had 5 games where he scored 2 or fewer points. So in half of his 10 starts he basically did nothing for his team. No one else on this list had more then 3 games of 2 or fewer pts. That said, Woodson was certainly on my short list of candidates and not an unworthy vote.

There were some players receiving votes that were unworthy here, the worst would have to be the vote for Bernard Pollard who never even made it onto a FLOF roster this season.

2009 Pro Bowl

2010-01-24T11:21:00.003-05:00

Also, very late with this. But lets go ahead and open up the Pro Bowl voting for the 2009 season for a couple of weeks. Remember, this is supposed to be a Pro Bowl taking into account only the regular season.

FLOF Bowl MVPs

2010-01-24T11:13:00.002-05:00

I'm a little late with this, but I'm giving Favre the FLOF Bowl MVP. His 27 pts and last second timing give him the nod over OMVP Larry Fitzgerald.

Suggs picks up the defensive MVP hardware and the FLOF Bowl Dud is easily Shayne Graham who came real close to putting up a negative score.

I'm not sure I've ever done this before, but I've got to give Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie the Playoff MVP and DMVP award, he scored a high of 44 pts over 3 games and his 14.67 pts per game average was still second amongst players with more then 1 game.

First in the pts per game was Matt Schuab (also a Ramjet) who scored 34 pts in 2 playoff games.

Bill Wins His First FLOF Bowl

2010-01-17T16:31:00.003-05:00

Bill 16 - Ramjets 0

In someways this game was not very close -- Ramjets were 11 points in the hole after only 1 offensive player scored points in this game. But, Ramjets' D made Bill work for it. After all but Brett Favre had played, Bill was also 11 points in the hole. But Brett came through with his best FLOF post season performance by far to give Bill his first FLOF Bowl victory.

Congratulations Bill.

FLOF Bowl Half-Time Report

2010-01-11T08:46:00.004-05:00

At the half FLOF Bowl 14 is locked in a 0-0 tie.

Mostly this is because Roger's offense has sucked and his defense has played well. 4 of Roger's 5 offensive players scored 0 pts. McGahee's 10 pts and the 1 receiving point scrounged together between 3 players is all he's got right now. However, Sugg's 13 pts and Rodgers-Cromartie's 8 provided a solid base for a defense that still has one more player to play.

Fitzgerald has provided the only offense so far for Bill with 13 points but the story for Bill is who hasn't played yet, not who has. Bill currently has a 12 point deficit and 2 offensive players who can score points this upcoming weekend.

Bill has Brett Favre, Garrett Hartley, and either Will Smith or Bradie James left to play in next weekend's games. Roger has Gary Brackett playing this weekend. So this FLOF Bowl will likely come down to Favre and Hartley against Brackett and a 12 point cushion. In all likely hood, Roger's best bet is to have the score tied after this weekend. Of course if Brackett were to score a touchdown...

Tie-Breakers:

Time to dust off the FLOF Bowl tie-breaker rules. Some of you will remember 2002's crazy 0-0 FLOF Bowl between Drow and Deadheads that resulted in an unsatisfying use of the last tie-breaker: Super Bowl total score predictions. The tie-breakers were re-written that off-season resulting in:

1) If the score is tied. All current starters are locked in place and any stats they accumulate the next weekend are added to their current stats and we re-score the game. We continue to do that every week through the Super Bowl if we have to. If that doesn't break the tie...

2) We un-round all point calculations and see if that breaks the tie. This really only affects yardage numbers and maybe tackle numbers and would likely not do anything to break a tie if its a 0-0 defense fest. If that fails to break the tie...

3) Instead of subtracting defensive points from opponent's offensive points we add each team's offensive and defensive points together (while retaining the un-rounded stats from above). This seems likely to produce a winner with un-rounded yardage stats and no chance for a 0-0 defensive tie, but there is more if we need it...

4) Calculate how many points players on the bench would have scored in the FLOF Bowl and add that to our calculations to this point. (keeping the rules from #2 and #3 above). If that doesn't do it Doug pulls out his hair and we will be reverting to our last tie-breaker...

5) Prior to the Super Bowl both teams must guess the total score of the Super Bowl, making sure there is no chance for a tie here...

FLOF Bowl 14 Preview

2010-01-08T08:00:00.000-05:00

Lets look at each team's rosters heading into week 1 of the 2-week FLOF Bowl. Remember that a player's stats can be counted from either this week or next but not both.

QB -- Roger had two potential starters bumped from the playoff in the last week of NFL games and currently does not have a starter on his roster. Although he's looking at Tom Brady's back-up, hoping maybe the ribs give out mid-way through the game. Bill actually has two choices but he picked up Favre for the playoffs and that looks like the smart play given Palmer's recent production. Favre will play next week. Obviously this is a huge advantage for Bill.

RB -- Cedric Benson was acquired for the playoff run and has been solid if not spectacular so far. Benson even got rest up last week but will face a stiff Jets D. This could be the biggest issue for Bill. CJ carried this team all year but will not be available so will chose between Chris Wells and Marion Barber. This could be an advantage for Roger but its not clear cut.

WR -- Neither of Ramjets' starters down the stretch will be available for him but he will get to choose between Derrick Mason, Braylon Edwards, and Bernard Berrian (who will play next week). Bill will not have Marshall's services for the playoffs but his leading receiver Fitzgerald will be there and Donald Driver will get the start for Marshall. This should be an advantage for Bill.

K -- Roger will dip into the free agent pool for a kicker this week. Bill picked up Hartley late in the year to serve in the playoffs. Both kickers will play so its hard to do anything but call this a push.

DF -- Roger's two best DFs down the stretch -- Bracket and Suggs -- made it to the playoffs and will start. Bill picked up Bradie James for this occasion but is dipping into free agency for someone to start opposite him. This should be an advantage for Roger.

DB -- Roger's two hottest DBs made the playoffs including current playoff MVP Rodgers-Cromartie. Bill got all 3 of his DBs to the playoffs but I give Roger an advantage here.

In the end I think it will be hard for Roger to over-come the QB advantage Bill will have in this game and so I predict Bill will win his first FLOF Bowl, but its a one-game tournament and anything can happen. If Favre revisits his not so distance past, he is perfectly capable of being outscored by a back-up QB who never sees a snap.

Good luck to both.

FLOF Bowl Preview: Bill's Team

2010-01-07T08:00:00.000-05:00

Bill's Team are a career 0-1 in FLOF Bowls -- losing their only appearance to Deadheads in 2005. Bill's Team are 6-7-1 all time against Ramjets including a loss in their lone playoff match up: a 45-12 loss in 2003's wild card round. They tied in their only meeting so far this season 27-27 in week 7.

How They Got Here:

Bill's Team has been one of the most explosive teams in the league during the second half of the season. They scored in the top 1/3 of scores 5 times in their last 7 regular season games as well as in their lone playoff game so far. But their winning streak goes back even farther. After starting the season a rough 2-3, they would close out the season 7-1-1 to finish with the league's best record. Despite the gaudy numbers, it also took Bill a week 14 show-down with a division rival to secure the division championship because Malleus went on a nearly equal run to close out the season.

The chart below tracks Bill's total points scored every week. The grey bar is the middle 1/3 of scores in FLOF over the last 2 seasons (from 61 to 72 pts). The white line is the median over the last 2 seasons (68 pts).

Key Players:

Carson Palmer was not his usual self this season but he held down the fort all season. Bill drafted Carson in the 7th round back in 2003.

This was the Chris Johnson show all season long. CJ went through a slow patch weeks 2-3 but has not scored fewer then 10 pts in a game since including a 3-game stretch were he never scored fewer then 25. CJ also came up big in the biggest games: scoring 30 in week 14 with the division on the line and scoring 20 in last week's playoff win. Chris Johnson was the 2nd pick in the 2008 draft (by Bill).

Larry Fitzgerald has been a beast as well this year averaging 8 pts per game with consistent scoring. Fitzgerald was acquired via trade with the Rednecks in 2007.

Olindo Mare was serviceable most of the year at the kicker position for Bill averaging 7 pts per game with few really terrible games. Mare was a 7th round draft pick this year.

Jon Beason is another star for this team that seems loaded with them. Beason averaged just under 8 pts per game and saved his best for the stretch run -- scoring 8 or more for the last 3 weeks of the regular season and 17 in last week's playoff game. Beason was a 2nd round draft pick this year.

Adrian Wilson was a post-draft free agent pick-up for Bill this year and has been a solid starter since appearing regularly in the starting line-up week 9.

FLOF Bowl Preview: Ramjets

2010-01-06T08:00:00.000-05:00

Ramjets are a career 1-2 in FLOF Bowls. They won the first ever FLOF Bowl back in 1997 and appeared in 2 more over the next 4 years. Ramjets are 7-6-1 all time against Bill's Team including a win in their lone playoff match up: a 45-12 win in 2003's wild card round. They tied in their only meeting so far this season 27-27 in week 7.

How They Got Here:

Ramjets got off to a good start going 3-1-1 before hitting a 0-3-1 slump mid season. That left them 3-4-1 after week 9 but in the Right Division that meant they were only 1/2 game behind division leader CAPO. From that point on Ramjets played pretty strongly and matched CAPO win-for-win and loss-for-loss until their week 14 show down for the division title which Ramjets obviously won. Ramjets have remained hot through the playoffs.

The chart below tracks Ramjets total points scored every week. The grey bar is the middle 1/3 of scores in FLOF over the last 2 seasons (from 61 to 72 pts). The white line is the median over the last 2 seasons (68 pts).

Key Players:

Matt Schaub took over for Eli Manning early in the season and was the Ramjet's biggest contributor all year averaging 14.44 pts/gm. Schuab has been particularly strong in the playoffs with two 17 pt games and is second in points scored this post season. Schaub was acquired from Drow the end of last year in a trade.

Ronnie Brown was a steadying influence at RB for the beginning of the season after taking over for Portis. But he broke in week 10 and that nearly killed Ramjets playoff hopes. Brown was a first round draft pick this year.

Cedric Benson has not been phenomenal since joining Ramjets after being acquired in a trade with the Drow at the deadline but he has been solid and that's better then what they had.

Wes Welker and Steve Smith (Car) held down the fort at WR for most of the season. Welker has largely been solid but not excellent and Smith has been hot or cold but Smith has really come on in the playoffs with 21 pts in 2 games. Welker was a 2nd round darft pick 2 years ago by the Ramjets and was franchised this season. Smith was acquired in an early season trade with Drow.

Matt Prater gave the kicking game a boost for the final 4 weeks of the season by averaging 2 more pts per game then Kris Brown had prior to that but came up small in the playoffs averaging 4 pts over two games. Prater was acquired in free agency this year.

Terrell Suggs was a solid season long DF for Ramjets but has not had much affect in the playoffs so far. Suggs was a 2nd round draft pick for the Ramjets this season.

Gary Bracket was a 6th round draft pick for the Ramjets this year who gave the defense a little boost for the last 4 games of the regular season but also has not had much affect in the playoffs.

Brandon Meriweather and Richard Marshall (both 4th round draft picks) were a solid duo at DB for Ramjets all year but Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (acquired at the trade deadline from IC Lagers) has been the playoff MVP so far with 36 points over 2 games, the most of any player so far.

Playoffs: Ramjets, Bill Advance

2009-12-29T08:10:00.002-05:00

Bill 18 - Malleus 10

Two of the hottest teams in FLOF met for the 2nd time in 3 weeks. Last time, Bill won the Middle Division. This time, Bill advanced to his second FLOF Bowl. Both teams produced a lot of points on both sides of the ball but Bill's outstanding defensive effort trumped Malleus' better offensive effort.

Kurt Warner and Thomas Jones paced Malleus' offense but no one stood out on the defensive side of the ball for them. Bill's offense was carried by Chris Johnson and the defense got two superb efforts from Jon Beason and Adrian Wilson.

Ramjets 33 - Mimes 8

Mimes lost for the third time when attempting to make a FLOF Bowl. They've never gone to one. Ramjets continued their dominating post-season run to make their 4th FLOF Bowl, but their last appearance was in 2001.

Brandon Meriweather and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie contributed double digit scores to a big defensive effort complimented by Matt Schuab and Cedric Benson on offense. Mimes got good efforts from Philip Rivers, Frank Gore, and especially LaMarr Woodley but pretty everyone else contributed little.

Reminder that the FLOF Bowl will start the weekend after this.

Playoff Review

2009-12-23T07:57:00.002-05:00

Malleus (1st wild card) @ Bill (Middle Division champ)

These two teams fought tooth and claw all season long for the Middle Division championship and had two of the best records in the league. They split their season series with Bill winning the season finale to gain the championship and home field for this rematch. Malleus is the defending FLOF Bowl Champion and is 3-0 in the playoffs while Bill has only won 1 playoff game in 6 tries but that was in 2005 when the win put them in their only FLOF Bowl appearance.

Ramjets (Right Division champ) @ Mimes (Right Division champ)

One of these two teams will be in the FLOF Bowl and hoping to end one of the longest FLOF Bowl droughts in the league. Mimes have never made a FLOF Bowl since entering the league in 2002 including twice losing the game prior to the FLOF Bowl. Ramjets last made the FLOF Bowl in 2001 and have not won a FLOF Bowl since becoming the inaugural FLOF Bowl champ in 1997. Mimes won their only meeting this year in week 5. (For the record, Beavers have not seen a FLOF Bowl since they won it in 1998, Bill and Rednecks have not won a FLOF Bowl since entering the league in 2001 although both have been in FLOF Bowls since then.)

Wild Card Review

2009-12-22T08:14:00.003-05:00

Malleus 41 - Rednecks 13

For all the offensive fireworks in this game including 21 from MJD and 16 from Dallas Clark, the lack of Redneck defense (8 total pts) sunk them especially compared to Malleus' 31 defensive points. Malleus advances to the next round of the Middle Division gauntlet that will be Haydn's 2009 playoffs to visit Bill this weekend.

Ramjets 32 - Beavers 15

Both teams crashed the playoff party on the last weekend of the season and both put up monster scores in this playoff game. Ironically both teams' big offensive imports for the playoffs put up weak totals. Cedric Benson scored only 3 for Ramjets while the duo of NO WRs combined for 6ish points for Beavers. Instead it was holdover QBs McNabb and Schuab who led their respective teams but it was a complete team effort by Ramjets for the win. Ramjets advance to face Mimes this weekend.

Toilet Bowl:

Flannel 29 - Hamburglers 14

Both teams looked decidedly un-Toilet-Bowl-esque this week with big scores. In fact, Peyton and Mike Wallace paced Flannel's top offensive total of the week while Hamburglers' D had the best defensive showing of the weekend. Both teams advance to the draft lottery for their troubles.

Thursday Night Re-cap

2009-12-18T10:09:00.004-05:00

Just a quick note for those still paying attention. Flannel, Malleus, and Hamburglers all risked playing Indy starters, and were all rewarded with solid games from Manning, Wayne and Dallas Clark. MJD had an excellent game as well and gives Rednecks a slight lead over Malleus going into the weekend. Peyton had a very good game for Flannel (28 points) as well but it's balanced against a 100+ yard and a TD game from Wayne for Hamburglers in the Toilet Bowl. Advantage Flannel, but QB vs. WR isn't really equal. Only one other player, Brackett for Ramjets had a decent 9 tackle game and get's things started for the second Wild Card game.

One more thing: Saturday game this week (Dallas/New Orleans) remember to set your rosters.