2009 Final Rankings and Predictions Revisited

Bill won the FLOF Bowl and for that he will forever get credit for being the best of 2009. But as I look back on the 2009 season I rank the performance of all 12 teams a little differently then the Ws and Ls. These rankings are based on looking at total scores each week to produce an expected number of wins based on those scores as they compare to historical scoring over the last 2 years.

So, the final 2009 Rankings.

The Good:

1. Malleus: Expected Wins 9.5, Actual Wins 9, Division Runner-Up, Playoff Final-4, Pre-season rank 6th, predicted Wild Card. Not bad. The team was a lot stronger then I expected but end result was pretty much the same.

2a. Drow: Expected Wins 8.8, Actual Wins 7, Lost Division, Just Missed Playoffs, Pre-season rank 4th, predicted Division win. Again my prediction was semi-right. I thought I had a decent team and I was right but I didn't get the results I had hoped for and the remarkable parity in FLOF this year means that losing 1 game meant the difference between a Division win and missing the playoffs.

2b. IC Lagers: Expected Wins 8.8, Actual Wins 7.5 (a tie), Just Missed Playoffs, Pre-season rank 12th, predicted Division lost. This one caught me by surprise. Kudos to Tim. I placed Drow in the 2a slot because they had a slightly better offensive median this season (median power was the same for these two as well).

4. Rednecks: Expected Wins 8.5, Actual Wins 8, Wild Card, Lost Wild Card game, Pre-season rank 1st, predicted Division winner. Rednecks were a strong team as I figured they would be but I didn't figure on the insane competition they would face in-side their own division.

5. Beavers: Expected Wins 8.3, Actual Wins 7.5, Division Runner-Up, Wild Card, Lost Wild-Card game, Pre-season rank 7th, predicted 3rd in division. Beavers did a little better this year then I thought they would and cashed in with a playoff appearance.

The Average:

6. Bill: Expected Wins 7.9, Actual Wins 9.5, Division Winner, FLOF Bowl Champ, Pre-season rank 10th, predicted division loss. Bill's Team was a stronger team then I thought they would be and they peeked at the right time, playing strong to close out the season and through the playoffs to capture the flaming football.

7. Old No. 7: Expected Wins 7.9, Actual Wins 6, Division loss but Just Missed Playoffs, Pre-season rank 8th, predicted 3rd in division and just miss playoffs. Apparently I got Old No. 7 all figured out.

8. Capo: Expected Wins 6.6, Actual Wins 6.5, Division runner-up, Just missed playoffs, Pre-season rank 2nd, predicted division winner. The whole right division pretty much threw me for a loop this year. I expected Capo to fight for the division this year but not because everyone in the division was a mediocre team at best.

9. Mimes: Expected Wins 6.3, Actual Wins 9, Division winner, lost Wild Card game, Pre-season rank 3rd, predicted division runner-up. Another team the under-performed my prediction in someways but not in wins and losses. Mimes had the largest discrepancy between expected wins and actual wins by far. Most teams landed within a win or two of expected. Mimes won nearly 3 games more then they probably should have.

10. Ramjets: Expected Wins 6.3, Actual Wins 7, Division winner, FLOF-Bowl runner-up, pre-season rank 11, division loss. Ramjets were pretty much as bad as I thought they would be this year but no one in their division was really strong so they hung around, got hot in the playoffs, and almost won it all.

11. Hamburglers: Expected Wins 6.1, Actual Wins 5, 3rd in division, Toilet Bowl loser, pre-season rank 9th, predicted 3rd in division. This was the only team in the Right Division I had pegged from the start. Although they fooled me after they started the season strong only to fall back to where I thought they'd be.

And the Bad:

12. Flannel: Expected Wins 4.4, Actual Wins 2, Division loss, Toilet Bowl winner, pre-season rank 5th, division runner-up and wild card. Clearly this team did not perform as well as I thought they were going to on any level.

If I give myself a win for predicting a team's final ranking within 3 spots of my pre-season ranking I got .500 this year. Three teams outperformed my pre-season rank, three did worse, and I predicted six teams pretty well.

FLOF Rules Discussion

Last year I dropped the ball and nothing got done on the rules front.

So, lets revisit what we had thought about last year plus any new thoughts and kick around the ideas again for discussion a little later.

Here's the link to the forum area that has last year's conversations plus some new entries from me:

http://www.lucidphoenix.com/flof/forum/topic.asp?id=13

(you have to log-in first)

FLOF Bowl Summary

Bill lead the league with 4 pro bowl players and 3 1st teamers. Ten franchises were represented at the Pro Bowl. Only Mimes and Ramjets failed to have any player named to the pro bowl.

Bill's Team: Chris Johnson (1), Larry Fitzgerald (1), Jon Beason (1), Adrian Wilson (2)

Beavers: Patrick Willis (1), Adrian Peterson (2), Charles Woodson (2)

Hamburglers: Darrelle Revis (1), Reggie Wayne (2), Jared Allen (2)

Drow: Nate Kaeding (1), Aaron Rodgers (2)

Old No. 7: DeSean Jackson (1), David Akers (2)

Capo: Drew Brees (1)

Lagers: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (1)

Flannel: James Harrison (2)

Malleus: Brian Dawksin (2)

Rednecks: Andre Johnson (2)